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ALTHOUGH not openly articulated by United States officials, one of the major factors influencing their country's decision to help catapult India into the "superpower" orbit is the rise of China. Senior George W. Bush administration officials have said that China is the future military adversary and is the most important strategic issue facing the U.S. in the long term. Former U.S. Ambassador to India Robert Blackwill was fond of telling his Indian audiences that the U.S. and India should together face the "enemy beyond the third mountain range".
In the first two years of the Bush presidency, China was a major preoccupation. The "Hainan" incident in which a U.S. military plane was forced to land on Chinese territory is an illustration. However, after September 11, 2001, the Bush administration became pre-occupied with the "war on terror". However, with the U.S. public's growing disillusionment with the "war on terror" and the illegal invasion and occupation of Iraq, the Bush administration seems to be once again diverting its focus to the "China threat".
In February 2005, the U.S. and Japan signed an official declaration calling for enhanced security ties between the two countries. The declaration was immediately criticised by Beijing, especially angry about a reference. Besides, the agreement came at a time when the Bush administration was busy trying to cobble up an anti-China military alliance in Asia. The Japanese government led by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has followed an anti-China agenda. Relations between Beijing and Tokyo are currently at their frostiest. India, along with Japan and Taiwan, had supported the Bush administration's "missile defence" policy, announced during the first term of Bush as President. It was clear that the programme was primarily aimed at China.
The renewed U.S. preoccupation with China was illustrated a few months later by the speech of Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld at a conference in Singapore. China, Rumsfeld said in his paper, "appears to be expanding its missile forces", allowing them to reach targets in many areas in the world and "improving its ability to project power" in the region. He suggested that China was precipitating an arms race without any justification. He asserted that no nation was "threatening China", forgetting to mention that U.S. nuclear missiles remain aimed at China. Japan and Taiwan have also been armed to the teeth with the latest U.S. weapons. A Pentagon report in June 2005 said China was preparing to stage military operations in many parts of Asia. China described the document as "a provocation against China's relations with other countries".
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. has viewed China as the next big threat. A U.S. Defence Planning Guidance (DPG) document published in 1992 said that the country's primary objective "is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival". The document was prepared under the supervision of World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz, the neo-conservative ideologue and then Under Secretary of Defence. It asserted that under no circumstances should any hostile power be allowed to dominate a region and "generate global power".
On the campaign trail in 1999, Bush called for the permanent containment of China. Washington is well aware that the Chinese military is antiquated in comparison to the U.S. Army. It seems that it is China's seemingly unquenchable thirst for energy resources to service its booming economy that is worrying the U.S. and its allies the most. China has excellent relations with Sudan, Venezuela and Uzbekistan, countries that are rich in hydrocarbon resources. Incidentally, all three have strained relations with the U.S.
The 2005 Pentagon report notes: "As China's energy and resources needs grow, Beijing has concluded that access to these resources requires special economic or foreign policy relationships in the Middle East [West Asia], Africa and Latin America, bringing China closer to problem countries such as Iran, Sudan and Venezuela." The U.S. views China's relationship with these countries as a threat to its security. India is still swearing by the gas-pipeline with Iran. The Venezuelan government too has promised a lucrative oil block to Indian companies. Washington has conveyed to New Delhi that it remains strongly opposed to the Iran-India gas pipeline project.
An internal U.S. Defence Department report, "Energy Futures in Asia", details of which have appeared in the U.S. media, notes that China "is building strategic relationships along the sea-lanes from the Middle East to the South China Sea in ways that suggest defensive and offensive positioning to protect China's energy interests, but also to serve broad security interests". The Pentagon report stated that China, by militarily controlling the sea-lanes, would create a "climate of uncertainty about the safety of all ships on the high seas".
The U.S. has started the process of containing China by surrounding it with military bases and establishing anti-China alliances. Admiral William Fallon, Commander of the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM), told the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee in March 2005 that in view of the "continuing build-up" by China, military ties with "old and new allies in the region" should be deepened. He said the "missile defence programme" envisaged by the U.S. should be a top priority for development.
The Theatre Security Cooperation Plan (TSCP), released by the Pentagon in 2005, provides a blue print for the proposed anti-China alliance. Under the TSCP, the U.S. will provide military assistance, conduct joint military manoeuvres and have regular consultations with senior officials of the countries it wants on its side in the looming confrontation with China. In his testimony to the U.S. lawmakers, Fallon talked about the efforts being made to bring India into the U.S. orbit. He said: "Our relationship with the Indian Integrated Defence Staff and the Indian Armed Services continues to grow. U.S. and Indian security interests continue to converge as our military cooperation leads to a stronger strategic partnership." Before the Bush visit, the Indian and U.S. Navies conducted joint maritime war games off the Sri Lanka coast. Indian naval officials have reported that there is "a surprising level of inter-operability between the two navies at short notice".
In the first week of February, the U.S. Defence Department released its third Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR), which mentions India as a key strategic partner while China is projected as a potential rival. Russia too has been described as a potential danger to U.S. global interests. The thrust of the QDR's approach is on strengthening the U.S.' relations with its traditional allies in the region, Japan, South Korea and Australia, and converting India into a "de facto" ally, completing the process of encircling China.
The India-U.S. nuclear deal is viewed as a significant step in this direction. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has issued a statement characterising the QDR as a "serious misrepresentation" of facts. Chinese officials said that the document only reinforced the view that the U.S. wanted to retain its hegemonic influence in world politics at all costs. The U.S. now wants to rope in India to preserve its option of waging pre-emptive wars while retaining the technological and military edge over countries like China and Russia.
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