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THE much-delayed summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was held finally in Dhaka, the Bangladesh capital, in the second week of November. Fortunately, there were no 11th-hour hiccups this time.
Despite recent political rows between some member-countries, indications are that the leaders met in a cordial atmosphere. The Government of Bangladesh worked overtime to ensure a hassle-free summit.
India had cited the deteriorating security situation in Bangladesh as one of the reasons for not attending the summit in February. The host government was, however, aware that the main reason for India pulling out was the constitutional coup d'etat by the Nepal monarch on the eve of the scheduled summit. A lot of water has since flowed down the Padma. India no longer insists on making "democracy in Nepal" a hot button issue, having made up with the King at the Bandung Summit earlier this year.
The political scene in Bangladesh is at present surcharged as the ruling coalition and the Opposition are gearing up for elections early next year. Even an event like the SAARC summit became a political sideshow, with the Opposition alleging that the ruling party wanted to extract mileage from the event. In fact, the Opposition pointed out to visiting journalists that the law and order situation in the country had gone from bad to worse, especially in the past couple of months, as highlighted by the coordinated explosions that rocked the country in September. Senior Opposition leaders, journalists and judges have been targets of assassination attempts. It is obvious that a small but sinister fundamentalist grouping is at work in the country.
The doyen among Bangladeshi journalists, Enayetullah Khan, who passed away on November 10, wrote about the growing threat to the country from extremists, in a series of thought-provoking articles. During the summit, the government did not take any chances. The capital was under a tight security blanket.
The city was spruced up to the point of inconveniencing its citizens. The Opposition complained that the government was spending too much on the summit, especially at a time when the north of the country was experiencing a severe drought.
The sharp political polarisation in the country was reflected at the summit. Leader of the Opposition Sheikh Hasina refused to grace its official opening. However, leaders of the Left were present. Sheikh Hasina was out of the capital and made an appearance only on the last day of the summit. One of the leaders she called on was Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
TWO important decisions that emerged from the summit were to invite China to join the grouping as an "observer" and to include Afghanistan as a full-fledged member. The majority of the members have been pressing for China's inclusion. China too has been eager to interact with the grouping. India, though, has been trying to delay the inevitable. There is an unspoken fear in the corridors of power in New Delhi that the inclusion of China, even with the status of an "observer", will dilute the influence of India as the unofficial primus inter pares (the first among equals) in the organisation.
Most other members would prefer China to play a greater role in the region and give a fillip to their economies. There was a lot of behind-the-scenes diplomatic wheeling and dealing that preceded the two announcements. At the initial media briefings by the Indian, Bangladeshi and Pakistani officials, it was evident that there were conflicting views regarding the admission of Afghanistan and China into SAARC. Until the last day of the summit, Indian officials said that the grant of "observer status" for China was in doubt. Bangladeshi officials, holding separate briefings, said initially that Afghanistan's membership could not be taken for granted.
India acceded to the consensus view on China's inclusion. Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran told the media initially that there was no opposition to Afghanistan's membership of SAARC and that India was looking at China as a "dialogue partner" of the grouping. He said that Pakistan had proposed China's name initially either as an "observer" or as a "dialogue partner". The Foreign Secretary as well as Minster of State for External Affairs E. Ahmed told the media that China had communicated to India its interest in being associated with SAARC. The Foreign Secretary hastened to add that Japan and Germany too had indicated their desire to have a formal relationship with the organisation. India managed to get Japan "observer" status, despite the country being geographically distant from South Asia. China, in contrast, shares borders with four South Asian nations. In comparison, Afghanistan, the new entrant, shares its borders only with one SAARC member, Pakistan, and has more things in common with Central Asia. Japan's main claim for "observer status" is its role as the biggest provider of development aid to the region.
Senior Chinese officials have expressed their happiness at being accorded "observer status" but would not be too happy to be once again bracketed with Japan. In recent years, relations between the two countries have been deteriorating. Japan is one of the United States' closest allies in the region.
India's obvious attempt is to balance China's entry with the inclusion of Japan. Some commentators in India have chosen to portray China's inclusion as a setback to Indian diplomacy. The fear in New Delhi is that the smaller neighbours will gang up against the "big brother", with encouragement from China. Indian officials point out that Pakistan and China are after all "all weather friends".
According to experts, greater Chinese interaction with SAARC is bound to give a fillip to the region's economy. The Indian and Chinese economies are among the fastest-growing in the world. China's Foreign Ministry officials have said that their government is ready to work together with the governments of all South Asian states "to promote the cause of peace and development in the region".
Pakistan Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz welcomed the inclusion of Afghanistan in SAARC. He said Pakistan would try to convince other members to accord China full membership. "If and when the issue of inducting China as a full member comes up in SAARC, Pakistan would strongly support it because it sees the organisation as an inclusive one, which must be strengthened by greater institutionalisation," he said. Pakistan and Nepal have been claiming credit for the inclusion of China as an observer. Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga, in her speech at the opening ceremony, also came out in support of China's greater involvement in the SAARC process.
Shaukat Aziz, talking to the media in Dhaka, said that SAARC was "mired in conflict". He said the need of the hour was for countries to address bilateral issues such as Kashmir. "For sustainable peace, we must address Kashmir". Indian officials admitted that the "trust deficit" between the two countries still existed. Shyam Saran emphasised that the recent terrorist incidents and increased cross-border infiltration, had linkages outside India. He rejected the Pakistan government's suggestion of demilitarising the Line of Control (LoC).
A recent pre-summit speech by Manmohan Singh, alluding to "failed states" in the neighbourhood, kicked up a controversy in Dhaka. King Gyanendra, the Nepalese monarch, in his speech, was critical of those who had started describing his kingdom as a "failed state". He attacked the Maoists, describing them as representatives of a "failed ideology", unmindful of the fact that China still swears by the Communist ideology. Gyanendra counts on China as one of his main backers in the international arena.
Manmohan Singh, during his interaction with the Indian media in Dhaka, clarified that in his speech he did not refer to any particular South Asian state but was "focussing on the general security situation in the region". He said that though there had been some reduction in terrorist activities, "all that needs to be done is not being done". In his opening speech, the Prime Minister said that there should be "zero tolerance" towards terrorism. He said that he had a cordial meeting with the King of Nepal. He revealed that a "carefully worked out road map was being prepared in Nepal. Multi-party democracy is at the core of the plan". The King in his speech at the summit, had announced a timetable for a return to democracy, culminating in multi-party elections two years from now.
India's relations with Bangladesh seem to be on the mend after having hit an abysmal low earlier in the year. "A strong and prosperous Bangladesh is in India's interests. There are no insurmountable obstacles between the two countries. By helping Bangladesh, we are helping ourselves," Manmohan Singh said. He said that the Bangladesh government had taken "positive steps" to combat terrorism.
The summit made poverty reduction a top priority for the region. Another important decision made at the summit was the setting up of a Free Trade Area (FTA). Theoretically, the pact signed by the seven members of the grouping, should open up the entire South Asian region for free trade. Nobody expects the FTA to take off immediately. India said it was willing to open its borders to trade but on a "reciprocal" basis. The smaller countries are still overawed by the size of the Indian economy and fear that their indigenous industries will be affected adversely. Besides, economists point out that all SAARC countries export similar types of goods. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, for instance, are all big exporters of textiles.
Manmohan Singh, in his opening speech, expressed the hope that South Asian countries would "provide each other with transit facilities, not only to connect one another but also to link up with the larger Asian neighbourhood, the Gulf, Central Asia and South-east Asia".
At present, intra-regional trade among SAARC countries constitutes only 5 per cent of the total trade of the region. Trade between European Union members, on the other hand, is estimated at 60 per cent of the total trade. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is on the verge of forming the biggest common market in association with China and Japan. These are all incentives for SAARC to start accelerating its efforts to set up a free trade zone. Bilateral trade between India and China is booming after a free trade agreement was signed. India offers its two-year-old agreement with Sri Lanka as an illustration of a successful free trade agreement. Bilateral trade has expanded considerably between the two countries. The Sri Lankan President mentioned this in her speech. "I sincerely hope that the South Asia Free Trade Area (SAFTA) comes up from January 1, 2006. It will represent only a modest beginning of our goal of a regional economic union," Manmohan Singh said in his speech.
The Indian Prime Minster described the "Dhaka Declaration" as a "forward-looking document". He said a number of proposals were put forward at the summit, including plans to establish a South Asian University, evolving a collective energy strategy and cooperating in the field of Information and Communication Technology.
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