|
|||||
|
PETROLEUM Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar was in Pakistan and Iran in early June to meet his ministerial counterparts in a bid to expedite the much-talked-about Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project. Since the mid 1990s, Iran has been trying to get Pakistan and India to look at the pipeline idea seriously. Whenever Iranian officials raised the matter with New Delhi, they were countered with questions about its economic feasibility. Besides, Indian officials repeatedly raised the issue of security guarantees relating to the project. With the relations between India and Pakistan not very good for most of the past decade, New Delhi feared that the pipeline would give additional strategic leverage to Islamabad.
When India-Pakistan relations started improving after the January 2004 South asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summit, Iran once again urged both countries to look at the proposed project seriously. With the American pipeline politics in the region having an adverse impact on the Iranian economy, Teheran was keen to find a market in South Asia. India, with its fast-growing economy, was a logical choice. Experts have said that gas from Iran is also the cheapest available option for India in comparison to the proposed pipelines from Turkmenistan and Qatar to Pakistan.
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, who was in Qatar recently, has indicated that the proposed deep-sea pipeline connecting the emirate to Pakistan was technologically not feasible at this juncture. Many experts are sceptical about the "huge" gas deposits being talked about by officials in Turkmenistan. A study is under way to find out whether building a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan is a commercially feasible proposition in the first place.
The Pakistani side was initially more interested in the American-sponsored gas pipeline from Turkmenistan, passing through Afghanistan. The Americans were even then opposed to a pipeline from Iran. Since the fall of the Shah of Iran, successive American administrations have been trying to effect a regime change in Iran. The Bush administration, however, has been the most brazen. It has been reported in the United States media that American commandos have gone on undercover missions inside Iran to destabilise the Iranian government.
The U.S. State Department stated recently that Iran was the "biggest exporter of terrorism" in the world. President Musharraf, in a recent interview to the German weekly Der Spiegel, said that it was his impression that Iran wanted to possess nuclear weapons. He later said that he was misquoted. Musharraf has also praised Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon as a "statesman". Both the U.S. and Israel are the most vocal in calling for the overthrow of the revolutionary government in Iran.
However, Musharraf, in his recent one-hour-long meeting with Mani Shankar Aiyar, reiterated his full backing for the proposed pipeline from Iran. In his interviews with both the Pakistani and international media, he has exuded sincerity about Pakistan's desire to expedite the construction of the pipeline. "The gas pipeline is a win-win proposition for Iran, Pakistan and India," Pakistan Prime Minister Sahukat Aziz said in January 2005. There is also the precedent of a close ally of Washington having broken ranks. In early 2003, Japanese companies acquired a 20 per cent stake in the development of the Soroush-Nowruz offshore field in the Persian Gulf, which is reputed to hold more than 1billion barrels of oil. In 2004, the Iranians awarded a $1.26-billion contract to Japan's JGC Group for an oil-and-gas project.
Under the U.S. government's Executive Order (E.O.) 12959, signed by President Bill Clinton in 1995 and renewed by President George W. Bush in 2004, the Japanese government could attract American sanctions. The U.S. administration has been threatening to take punitive action against foreign firms that do business with Iran under the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act of 1996. The proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline will cost more than $3 billion. The Americans have already raised the sceptre of sanctions against New Delhi.
American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has explicitly stated the Bush administration's displeasure with the Indian moves to make the pipeline project with Iran a reality. The Bush administration is also apparently dangling the carrot of civilian nuclear reactors for India, provided New Delhi forgoes the pipeline option. According to diplomats of countries belonging to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), international sanctions preclude the sale of nuclear reactors to India and Pakistan. Sanctions were clamped on the two countries after they conducted nuclear tests in 1998. American Ambassador to India David Mulford has also been lobbying against the gas pipeline.
"We are aware of their [U.S.] concerns but they should be aware of our requirements," Mani Shankar Aiyar told the media in Pakistan. Pakistani diplomats say that both Islamabad and New Delhi should lobby together in Washington for the gas pipeline and explain its importance to the economies of the two countries, which are both currently very close to the Bush administration. Privately, diplomats feel that it will be difficult for India, Pakistan and Iran to raise finance from the international financial institutions for the $3-billion pipeline if Washington remains actively opposed to the project. But Aiyar is not to be deterred. He said in Islamabad that with both the Indian and Pakistani treasuries brimming with huge foreign exchange reserves, the financing of the pipeline would not be an insurmountable issue. A substantial amount for the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline was raised from state funding, with the Turkish government, particularly, dipping deep into its coffers.
There was considerable optimism in many quarters about the gas pipeline materialising by the late 1990s itself. UNOCAL, the American company then involved in the Turkmenistan project, had successfully coopted the Taliban government in Kabul. Afghan engineers were taken to the UNOCAL headquarters in Texas for training with the blessings of the Taliban. The Taliban had brought law and order back to Afghanistan. Senior UNOCAL officials this correspondent met in the Turkmenistan capital of Ashkabad in 1997 expressed confidence that within a decade, the pipeline would extend all the way to Pakistan and then proceed to India and Bangladesh. UNOCAL had set up office in India hiring influential people.
THE events of September 11, 2001, changed the scenario radically. Afghanistan has once again descended into chaos, though a pro-American regime is in power there. Pakistani officials hint that in the short term the most feasible proposition for India is to pick up oil and gas shipments from the port of Gwadar, which is going to be Pakistan's biggest. Gas from Qatar and other countries in the region will be initially shipped into the port.
Aiyar said in Islamabad that India was keen on exploring the possibilities of getting piped natural gas from Turkmenistan. The Pakistani government is expected to help facilitate an invitation for the Indian Petroleum Minster to attend the next round of talks in Ashkabad, on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) project. Aiyar wants TAP to expand further by bringing countries such as India and Uzbekistan and become an energy grid for the region by expanding all the way to China, Bangladesh and Myanmar. However, the Minster emphasised that the Turkmenistan project was not an alternative to the Iran gas pipeline but an additional option for India. Pakistan Prime Minster Shaukat Aziz said in Islamabad that pipelines connecting the two countries would "create linkages and interdependencies for establishing an enduring relationship between the two countries". Aiyar said that for relations to be stable between the two countries, there "is need to have a stake in each other's economies".
Aiyar had detailed talks with his Pakistani counterpart, Amanullah Khan Jadoon, a historic first between the Oil Ministers of the two countries. India has had several rounds of talks with Iran in the last six months on the proposed pipeline. "The homework has been done on the pipeline with Iran," said Mani Shankar Aiyar in Islamabad. Both countries have concluded that the proposed pipeline should follow the overland route as it was technologically and economically more viable. The Iranian Oil Minister is scheduled to be in Islamabad in the second week of June for further discussions on the gas pipeline. The Pakistani Petroleum Minster is expected in India in early July for more talks on the issue. "Working groups" of the two countries have been mandated to deal with all issues relating to the pipeline and will be beginning work soon.
Islamabad, however, has made it clear that it would be taking a final decision on the Iran gas pipeline only by December 31. Aiyar, however, is optimistic about "getting the project off the ground" by early next year. He expressed the hope of India and Pakistan jointly accessing the vast energy resources of the region. "We have signposted the way forward. We can smile with confidence," said Aiyar in Islamabad. He had an hour-long meeting with Musharraf, and said that Musharraf had given his "blessings" to the Iran pipeline project.
The Minster said that the issue of "American pressure" regarding the pipeline was not discussed during the meeting with the Pakistan President. Musharraf, however, expressed the need to hasten the peace process between the two countries. When bilateral relations were at a low ebb three years ago, Pakistani officials had said that progress on the Iran gas pipeline would depend on concessions from India on the Kashmir issue.
The joint communique issued at the end of Aiyar's visit stated that the Ministers agreed that the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline would go a long way in meeting the energy requirements of the two countries. The two sides also agreed to share information about financial structuring and other related issues regarding the construction of a safe and secure pipeline. The two sides exchanged detailed information about their respective requirements of gas. The unmet energy requirements of both countries by the year 2025 are projected at 500 million cubic metres a day. 300 million cubic metres will be the shortfall faced by Pakistan and the rest by India. Pakistan too is in need of new energy sources though for the time being it is self-sufficient.
Aiyar thanked Jadoon for providing him detailed information about the demand for and supply of natural gas in Pakistan. He promised to share similar information about India's energy needs when the Pakistani Minister visited New Delhi.
Aiyar is convinced that he has got the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline off the drawing board. He has described his visit to Pakistan as a very successful one. Things will be clearer once Pakistan makes up its mind by the end of the year.
Printer friendly
page
|
