WORLD AFFAIRS

Nuclear politics

JOHN CHERIAN

The Western powers pressure Iran to abandon its uranium enrichment programme, but Teheran, driven by its threat perceptions in West Asia, remains defiant.

IRAN has once again come under tremendous international pressure following the demand by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it end its uranium enrichment programme. Prominent Western nations led by the United States have been accusing Iran of pursuing a clandestine nuclear weapons programme and Iran, a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), has consistently denied the charge, emphasising that its nuclear programme is only for peaceful purposes. Teheran insists that it needs the uranium enrichment programme in order to supply its proposed nuclear power plants with fuel.

VAHID SALEMI/AP

Hassan Rohani, Iran's top nuclear negotiator.

Last year, Iran had temporarily suspended this programme after it came under concerted pressure from the West. Iranian officials claim that the suspension was "voluntary". They say that they had to re-commence programme after European countries such as Germany and France failed to fulfil their promises of providing technical help for its nuclear power projects. Teheran has also been emphasising that the NPT does not prohibit signatories to it from engaging in uranium enrichment.

The United States, Germany, France and Britain submitted a draft resolution in the third week of September to the IAEA's Governing Council, demanding that Iran immediately cease its uranium enrichment activities. They have set a deadline for Iran to cooperate - by the end of November - or face drastic consequences.

AFP/HO

Iran's first nuclear reactor, being constructed with Russian help in the Gulf port of Bushehr, about 1,300 km south of Teheran. It will be commissioned in October 2006, a year later than originally planned, according to Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation officials.

It was the report of IAEA chief Mohammed el-Baradei in the second week of September that Iran was engaged in the reprocessing of fuel that led to the renewed international focus on Iran. The IAEA's Board of Governors had adopted a strong resolution on June 18 condemning Iran for its alleged failure to cooperate fully with the agency's investigations into its nuclear programme. In December 2003, Teheran had signed NPT's Additional Protocol, which gave IAEA personnel the right to inspect both declared and undeclared nuclear sites. Two months before that, following a visit by the Foreign Ministers of Britain, Germany and France to Teheran, Iran had agreed to open its nuclear facilities to international inspections and suspend voluntarily its uranium enrichment activities.

There are reports that Iran's top leadership had a brainstorming session after last year's invasion of neighbouring Iraq by the U.S. It is being speculated that the Iranians came to the conclusion that a nuclear capable country was less likely to be a candidate for a militarily enforced regime change. Iran, North Korea and Iraq were the countries that American President George W. Bush, designated as the "axis of evil". The Iranian leadership would have undoubtedly observed the reluctance of the Bush administration to be militarily entangled with North Korea, which many in the West believe is in possession of nuclear weapons. Observers also point out that Iran is taking the well-traversed path taken by countries like India, Pakistan, Israel and South Africa to become de facto nuclear powers. South Africa, after the collapse of the apartheid state, has the distinction of being the only country to give up voluntarily the nuclear option.

The West, under the aegis of the IAEA, has threatened to take unspecified "further steps" against Teheran if it does not comply with the latest demands. Leading figures in the Bush administration have already started talking about imminent "economic sanctions" against the Islamic Republic. However, leading powers such as China, Russia and France have considerable economic stakes in Iran and are therefore unlikely to support a call for an economic blockade. India too has "special strategic" ties with Iran. These ground realities, however, do not restrain influential elements in the U.S. from talking openly of a pre-emptive strike against Iran's nuclear installations.

The media in Israel are also awash with officially inspired stories about an imminent attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel. To fuel such speculation, the Bush administration has announced the sale of 5,000 "smart bombs," including 500 one-tonne bunker-busting bombs to Israel. The message is that the powerful deep penetration bombs could be used to take out the secret Iranian nuclear facilities. With the Bush administration preoccupied with the upcoming presidential polls, Teheran fears that the war-mongering Ariel Sharon government in Israel would use the short time between now and November to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities.

AFP

IAEA Director-General Mohammed el-Baradei.

Teheran seems to be taking the threat seriously after the Israeli establishment made it clear that it will do its utmost to retain its nuclear monopoly in West Asia. Israel had after all tried to derail Saddam Hussein's nuclear plans for Iraq at a nascent stage; its war planes had bombed the Osirak nuclear plant near Baghdad in 1981. The head of Israel's Institute of Policy and Strategy, Uzi Arad, who was also a senior operative of the Israeli security agency Mossad, said recently, reflecting Zionist opinion, that Iran wants to acquire nuclear weapons with which it could one day destroy the Jewish state. The Israeli Air Force chief told a newspaper that once his government decides that a military solution was required, "then the military has to provide a solution."

Iran's chief security negotiator, Hassan Rohani said in the third week of September that Iran would not accept any ultimatum regarding the suspension of its uranium enrichment programme. He emphasised that no international body has the legal power to do so. Iran is also upset by what it perceives as a blatant display of double standards by the international community on the issue of nuclear proliferation. Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said in late September that the world should recognise the country's right to enrich uranium for use in its nuclear power stations. On September 21, three days after the IAEA adopted a resolution calling on Iran to stop all uranium-enriching activities, Teheran announced that it had begun the large-scale process of converting uranium ore into the gas needed for enrichment. American officials said this would give Iran the capability to produce several atomic bombs. Israel, which is known to have a bigger nuclear arsenal than some of the five de jure nuclear powers, remains miraculously immune to inspections or sanctions from the international community. El Baradei, during his visit to Israel in June this year, did not seem to be too critical of the Jewish state's nuclear activities.

The Iranian government hardened its posture when aggressive statements started emanating from Washington and Tel Aviv in recent weeks. Iranian Defence Minister Ali Chamkhani said that his country would not sit with "arms folded waiting for others to act against us". He suggested that the "doctrine of pre-emption" is not the prerogative of the U.S. alone. On August 11, Iran successfully tested its latest version of medium-range missiles - the Chahab 3, which has Israel in its sights. "All of Israeli territory, including its military installations and nuclear stocks, are now within reach of Iranian missiles and military technology," a top Iranian military official was quoted as saying. Iranian authorities have made it clear that if Israel dares to launch an attack on its nuclear facilities, the Jewish state's sprawling nuclear installation in Dimona in the Negev desert will be specifically targeted. Rohani has said that any country that "feels threatened by another, should prepare itself". Iran's Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi told the media in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meet that his country would react "most severely" against any Israeli attack against its nuclear facilities.

Iran is not the only country that is in a defiant mood these days. There are reports suggesting that Brazil is also in the uranium-enriching mode. Brazil, unlike Iran, is not a signatory to the NPT's Additional Protocol and is therefore not subject to the rigorous inspections regime of the IAEA. South Korea has admitted to dabbling in laboratory experiments in plutonium and uranium enrichment. The recent developments may not, however, signal a radical change in Iran's nuclear status. President Khatami, in a speech delivered during a military parade in the third week of September, said that Iran was steadfast in its determination to continue its "peaceful nuclear programme". At the same time, he assured the international community that Iran would not go for nuclear weapons "not because we fear others, but because of our beliefs and principles, because we oppose nuclear weapons and consider them a threat to humanity".

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