WORLD AFFAIRS

A socialist's progress

JOHN CHERIAN

The near-certain ascendancy of Leftist candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to the Presidency marks a watershed in Brazilian politics.

LUIZ INACIO LULA DA SILVA of the Workers Party (P.T.) of Brazil took an overwhelming lead in the first round of the country's presidential election, held on October 6. In all probability he will become the next President of Brazil in three weeks' time, after the run-off between the top two candidates. Lula, as he is popularly known, has been a regular contestant for the top post since the late 1980s. This time he narrowly missed winning the Presidency in the first round itself. But since Lula has a substantial lead over his closest opponent Jose Serra of the ruling Social Democratic Party of Brazil (PSDB), it will be a walkover for him, in all likelihood. The West and the international financial markets are now virtually reconciled to the reality of a candidate from the Left emerging as the leader of the world's fourth biggest democracy. Lula will be also the first Brazilian President with a working class background.

VANDERLEI ALMEIDA/AFP

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the Workers Party at his house in Sao Bernardo do Campo in Brazil on October 6.

Lula seems to be fourth time lucky. He had done well consistently in previous presidential elections but had thrice been pipped at the post in the second round because the political establishment, afraid of his radical agenda, closed ranks. Lula started his political career as a young trade unionist who dared to take on the military rulers who were running the country with an iron hand in the late 1960s and the 1970s. He was incarcerated for his support for working class causes. He was one of the main architects of the Workers Party, which was formed in the early 1980s; since then, he has been fighting elections on the P.T. ticket.

Lula remains committed to the basic values that shaped his politics in his formative years. He may have given up his trademark working class attire for a business suit, but he still washes his own clothes. He lives in the same house that he has been sharing with his wife of 28 years. Although he has moderated his criticism of the role of international financial institutions and has pledged to stick to the free market economic course charted out by outgoing President Fernando Henrique Cardoso he has opposed free trade with the United States, saying that this would amount to the "economic annexation of the hemisphere''. Until the mid-1990s, Lula was more vocal in his criticism of free market policies and globalisation. In fact, he had actually called for the repudiation of Brazil's international debt.

Cardoso has been given credit for stabilising the Brazilian economy after he came to power eight years ago. Although the economy today shows increasing signs of strain, hyperinflation, which had been a nightmare for Brazilians until the early 1990s, is being successfully kept at bay. However, income distribution has been extremely uneven with 10 per cent of the population controlling half of the economic output. Thirty-four per cent of Brazil's population live under the poverty line (that is, people earning less than $3 a month). The Argentinean economic crisis and the general economic downturn in Latin America have had an adverse impact on Brazil, the powerhouse of the region. In August this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced a loan of $30 billion to be disbursed over a period of 15 months to Brazil.

MAURICIO LIMA/AFP

Supporters of Lula da Silva celebrate in Sao Paulo on October 6.

Lula no longer talks about the need to re-negotiate Brazil's various agreements with the IMF or its huge public debt, estimated to be more than $200 billion. Only another centre-Left candidate, Giro Gomes, who briefly sparkled at the polls, criticised the IMF policies for the region.

One reason why Lula has been careful about his rhetoric on the campaign trail is the deep suspicion that the Brazilian elite and the international financial community have harboured about him. He therefore kept his campaign focussed on the issues of unemployment, poverty and crime. Unemployment has been around 10 per cent and wages have been falling steadily. Some of the urban areas in Brazil are said to be akin to war zones.

In his campaign speeches Lula emphasised that he would form a government based on alliances, and representing the whole of Brazilian society.

Ever since the campaign started, Lula had managed to keep a consistent 20 per cent lead over all his rivals in the opinion polls. George Soros, the international speculator, had warned Brazilians in early June that electing Lula would be bad news for their economy. Soros said that investors would panic and shy away in large numbers from Brazil. But the scare-mongering tactics did not make a dent on the healthy lead that Lula maintained in opinion polls. Some wealthy Brazilians did indeed start transferring their money out, adding to the strains of the economy. Lula, on his part, tried to further reinforce his new "moderate'' image by making Anthony Garotinho, the leader of a small right-wing liberal party, the Brazilian Socialist Party, his running mate.

As the campaign progressed, it became evident that Lula's acceptability across the political spectrum had increased. His closest opponent Jose Serra was perceived as uncharismatic, though he has a reputation of being a good administrator. As Health Minister in the outgoing Cabinet, Serra reformed the health sector by making medical care more affordable. Serra played a big role in the Brazilian government's decision to import pharmaceutical products in bulk from India.

However, in a poll conducted just before the election, more than 34 per cent of the respondents said that they would not vote for Serra. Lula, on the other hand, was rejected by only around 27 per cent of the respondents. A high rejection rate had made Lula lose the previous three elections.

Jose Serra tried to focus on Lula's lack of formal education. This line of attack boomeranged on him when even President Cardoso sprung to Lula's defence. Lula may have started life as a lathe operator in a steel mill but today he is conversant in all aspects of statecraft. His performance on television has been masterly.

ERALDO PERES/AP

Jose Serra of the Social Democratic Party of Brazil in Sao Paulo on October 7. The ruling party's candidate came runner-up in the first round of elections.

As compared to his opponents, he has put forward only a few wrong steps so far. He said that he wanted Brazil to have a credible deterrent force that would include missiles and a new generation of fighter planes. Under U.S. pressure, Brazil had given up on its ambitious nuclear and missile programmes in the 1980s. He also made some comments, which were characterised as uncomplimentary by Argentineans. Brazil and Argentina are traditional rivals in the region.

The P.T.'s track record in local and provincial governments also helped Lula's campaign. The party has not been tainted by corruption scandals and is perceived to be more efficient. Local-level P.T. administrations introduced a scheme whereby poor parents were given a dole on condition that they send their children to school. The P.T. has promised that Lula, if elected to power, would come down heavily on corruption and tax evasion. A significant chunk of public spending in the country is said to be eaten away by corruption.

APART from the presidential poll, elections were concurrently held for the governorships, the lower and upper Houses of Parliament and the State Assemblies. Thirty political parties are in the fray. Voting is compulsory in Brazil for those who are aged 18 and above, though the minimum age for voting is 16. This is the reason for the usually high turnout. There are 115 million registered voters. Electronic voting has been introduced all over Brazil with even the remotest of jungle outposts being connected. This explains why results are out within hours after polling in a country almost three times the size of India.

The victory of Lula in the second round will reinforce the political ascendancy of the Left in Latin American politics. With the biggest country in Latin America embracing the Left, the neo-liberal model of development stands further discredited. Lula is also known to be a great admirer of Cuban President Fidel Castro. He is also among senior Latin American leaders who have been strongly critical of the U.S. efforts to destabilise the progressive government in Venezuela led by Hugo Chavez.

According to Brazilian analysts, the watershed elections could signal the departure of the oligarchs from the political scene and lead to faster regional integration. Currently there is a north-south divide in Brazilian politics. The less developed north had for long felt discriminated. Most of the economic development happened in the south. Brazil has been traditionally ruled by the elite from the south. Lula, whose power base is in the south, emigrated from the poverty-stricken north as a child. He has said that his presidency would be a "national development project''.

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