WORLD AFFAIRS

A tough presidential race

The campaign for the presidential election in Sri Lanka hots up although there is an overall sense of dismay over the approach of the political players to the issues confronting the nation.

V.S. SAMBANDAN
in Colombo

THIRTEEN candidates have joined the presidential race in Sri Lanka, but the high-decibel contest is only between President Chandrika Kumaratunga and United National Party leader Ranil Wickremasinghe.

The campaign that is under way, is marked for the signals the two leaders send to the masses and the implications of their vote-catching slogans on the island's future political course. An issue that has dominated the political agenda of the two main riv als is the resolution of the ethnic conflict. The outlook of the two candidates on the military aggression between the security forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) could tilt the scales in the December 21 election to the Executive Pres idency. Actually there is no wave in favour of any candidate.

In a clear shift from the 1994 election, the overwhelming support Chandrika Kumaratunga enjoyed at that time no longer exists. Left with mere blocks of votes, Kumaratunga and Wickrem-asinghe have to contend with the task of mobilising more support to exp and further on their respective constituencies.

AN estimated 11.7 million voters are to exercise their franchise. The major groups include Sinhalese, Sri Lankan Tamils, plantation Tamils and Muslims. According to the latest statistics released by the Central Bank, Sinhalese constitute 74 per cent of t he island's 18.55 million population. Sri Lankan Tamils constituting 12.6 per cent, Indian Tamils at 5.5 per cent and Moors comprising 7.1 per cent are the other major ethnic groups.

By religion, Buddhists constitute 69.3 per cent of the population, followed by Hindus (15.5 per cent), Muslims (7.5 per cent) and Christians (7.6 per cent).

In 1994, there was a cross-community backing for Kumaratunga's candidature as there was an island-wide euphoria in favour of peace. The response was particularly high in the northeastern area, which has a population of about 2.76 million.

SRIYANTHA WALPOLA
President Chandrika Kumaratunga.

Three weeks ahead of the election, there is an overall sense of dismay and cynicism over the polity and the approach of the political players to the issues confronting the nation.

The Sinhala vote, which has always seen a two-way split, is being sought by 12 of the 13 contestants. Needless to say, the main tussle will be between three Chandrika Kumaratunga, representing the People's Alliance (P.A.), Wickremasinghe and Nandana Guna thilaka, a politburo member of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). The JVP's entry into the fray makes a consolidation of the Sinhala vote a harder grind; this means that there is essentially a three-way split in the majority vote. Consequently, the mai n players have to either go all out to assuage Sinhala sentiments, or ensure that the majoritarian sensibilities are not ruffled.

The sense of alienation felt by the country's largest minority group, the Tamils, and the indications that they are not keen on exercising their franchise, provide the foundation for converting the election into an essentially southern (Sinhala) affair.

The mainstream Tamil political parties, which had initially exercised restraint, began in early December to spell out their stands. The former militant organisation have taken divergent positions on extension of support to either Chandrika Kumaratunga or Wickremasinghe. The Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) called upon the Tamil voters to reject both the candidates.

The Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP), which has been appointed by the P.A. as its polling agent in the northern Jaffna peninsula, was the first to declare its position. Douglas Devanada, the EPDP chief, reposed faith in Kumaratunga and extended the party's support for her candidature. He said: "We are confident that the President will resolve the Tamil issue. It may not be possible to do it at once. It has to be done in stages. But we are sure that she will meet our hopes and aspirations."

The Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation (TELO) has extended its support to Wickrem-asinghe, while the Eelam People's Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF), like the TULF, has distanced itself from the main contestants. The EPRLF leaders said that the pa rty would "support any party which genuinely attempts to find a lasting solution to the Tamil national question with the active participation of a third-party mediator." The party's secretary-general, Suresh Premachandran, said that the party did not hav e "the moral right to request the Tamil people to vote for either of the two main parties."

It is in this ambivalent background that the LTTE supremo, V. Prabakaran, made his annual Heroes' Day speech on November 27. He accused the Tamil parties of Sinhala chauvinism, and in a detailed charge against Kumaratunga, described her regime as "the w orst form of tyrannical oppression" against the island's Tamils.

While this harsh attack against Kumaratunga has the possibility of translating a hardline Sinhala-Buddhist consolidation behind her, Prabakaran's undiluted stance on the issue of a separate Eelam is also bound to agitate the majority south. Kumaratunga h as already started to capitalise on the proposals made by Wickremasinghe, which involved talks with the Tigers and providing for an interim administration by involving them. She has told the southern voters that such steps would lead to separation. A map showing the northeastern region in red colour, was splashed on the front page of a recent issue of a State-run daily, was a case in point. Whipping up passions against "a larger enemy" is considered an effective mechanism to consolidate the southern vot e.

THE campaign across the southern parts of the island witnessed its share of election-related violence. There have been reports of organised attacks on political opponents, intimidation of party workers and party flags being damaged. The police announced stern action to stem possible violent turn of events.

SRIYANTHA WALPOLA
Ranil Wickremasinghe, the UNP leader.

For his part, the Acting Commissioner of Elections has introduced a code of ethics for the contestants. He has asked them to exercise restraint in their speeches.

With the two main contestants facing death threats, there is increasing concern about a possible assassination attempt ahead of the election. There is an indication that the LTTE would give a clear direction to the Tamil voters in the north and east.

Until now, the call has been restricted to "not to trust Kumaratunga". This does not necessarily mean "trust Wickremasinghe". But, if such a direction were to come, the going will be more difficult for the President.

In addition, concerns abound about possible rigging in the Army-held areas of the north and east as well as in the polling booths to be set up in government-held areas for Tamils living in rebel-held territory. Such concerns gave rise to calls for inviti ng foreign election observers.

The two main contenders find themselves heading for a photo-finish. But, as in any marathon race, there is still time. But predictably, the acts of the LTTE would largely determine the outcome.