POLITICS

Tussles ahead

Out of power, Kalyan Singh has the potential to cause immense damage to the BJP, and although the central leadership is wary of displeasing him, hardliners in the State unit want to raise the stakes.

VENKITESH RAMAKRISHNAN

LEADERS who campaigned for the removal of Kalyan Singh as Chief Minister cited three reasons for the demand. They claimed, first, that the Bharatiya Janata Party's traditional support among the upper castes was eroding owing to the Kalyan Singh Governmen t's policy of appeasing backward classes. Second, they claimed, Kalyan Singh's style of governance - characterised by an excessive dependence on bureaucrats and undue interference by his family members and friends - had led to a situation where grassroot s-level leaders and activists felt alienated. Third, the leaders said, Kalyan Singh had made no effort to build a cohesive working relationship between the party organisation and the administration, and that the BJP organisational machinery had no role i n governance.

Now that Kalyan Singh has been replaced with Ram Prakash Gupta, will the BJP be able to rectify these "problems"? BJP leaders are less than optimistic. Moreover, large sections of the party at the State and central levels fear that the erosion of the BJP 's support among upper-caste groups, which are increasingly turning to the Congress(I), may be unchecked.

The BJP reckons that it lost a dozen seats in Uttar Pradesh in the recent parliamentary elections on account of the shift in the votes of the upper castes, especially Brahmins, to the Congress(I). Several central leaders, including Atal Behari Vajpayee a nd Murli Manohar Joshi, and their supporters in Uttar Pradesh had emphasised this point to reinforce their demand for Kalyan Singh's removal and the appointment in his place of a leader who would be acceptable to upper-caste groups.

SUBIR ROY
On a visit to Ayodhya on November 9,
two days before he resigned as Chief Minister, Kalyan Singh with sants and mahants associated with the movement for the construction of a Ram temple at the site of the demolished Babri Masjid.

However, Home Minister L.K. Advani and his confidant and party general secretary K.N. Govindacharya pointed out that the party had lost an equal number of seats owing to an erosion in its support base among the backward classes. They did not want any imm ediate action taken against Kalyan Singh.

Obviously, the Vajpayee-Joshi combine's viewpoint prevailed: Kalyan Singh was eventually removed. However, the leadership and the rank and file are not sure whether the party can win back the support of upper-caste voters.

According to a senior Minister in the State, if the central leadership had wanted to win back the support of the upper-caste groups, it should have appointed a Brahmin or a Thakur Chief Minister, not a leader belonging to the Vaish (Bania) community. (Ba nias, who constitute an intermediate caste, account for less than 2 per cent of the State's population; Brahmins account for about 9 per cent and Thakurs 8 per cent.)

The Minister (who is a Brahmin) told Frontline that the central leadership should have acted "boldly" and appointed either Kalraj Mishra, a Brahmin, or Rajnath Singh, a Thakur. "Now," he said, "the BJP might end up losing the support of both the u pper castes as well as the backward castes whose votes Kalyan Singh used to bring in." Kalyan Singh belongs to the Lodh Rajput community, which accounts for about 6 per cent of the population; he also has significant support among the Kurmi community, wh ich accounts for around 7 per cent.

These caste equations could get further complicated if Kalyan Singh decides to rock the boat. He has two options: join hands with Samajwadi Party (S.P.) president Mulayam Singh Yadav and form of a broad coalition to represent the backward classes, or imp lement his pledge to renew the movement for the construction of a Ram temple at Ayodhya. If he chooses to team up with Mulayam Singh, it could lead to a direct political battle between the upper castes and the backward classes, and the demographic advant age will be with the backward classes. The S.P. already has a support base among Muslims; the consolidation of the backward class vote would make a new coalition a major force. Mulayam Singh, on his part, has sent feelers to Kalyan Singh: he said that Ka lyan Singh's removal was an affront to the backward classes. He called for an agitation to press for 54 per cent reservation for the backward classes.

If Kalyan Singh chooses to raise the Ram temple issue, it would reflect an attempt to exploit, once again, his twin strengths: of being a backward class leader and of being a mascot of the Ayodhya agitation. It was on the basis of these strengths that he became Chief Minister in 1991. Following the demolition of the Babri Masjid and the dismissal of his government, he came to be seen as a leader who sacrificed power for a greater cause.

Owing to considerations of realpolitik arising from the BJP's pursuit of coalition politics at the national level since 1998, the Ram temple issue receded into the background. In the changed circumstances, Kalyan Singh was perceived more and more within the BJP as a leader of the backward classes who would not be able to retain upper-caste support, the BJP's main base. It was this consideration that ultimately led to his removal.

It is doubtful whether his promise to renew the temple agitation will help him politically, but the message is clear. He can embarrass the central leadership, particularly Vajpayee - who he says put the temple agenda on the backburner. Sensing a chance t o return to the limelight, the sants and mahants of Ayodhya who are associated with the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) welcomed Kalyan Singh's announcement. Evidently, Kalyan Singh proved his potential to damage the BJP.

It is this factor that compelled the central leadership to appoint Gupta, rather than a leader who had campaigned actively for Kalyan Singh's removal, his successor. Having decided to remove him, the central leadership did not want to displease him too m uch.

But an overwhelming section in the State unit of the BJP thinks that such caution has not served the party's interests. While a compromise was the preferred choice for the central leaders, the perception within the party and outside is that a weak choice has been made in order to avert an open revolt by Kalyan Singh. Sections of the upper-caste group, particularly supporters of Kalraj Mishra, blame Advani and Govindacharya for this: according to them, the two leaders accused Mishra of running a media ca mpaign to project himself as the Chief Minister and of vitiating the atmosphere to an extent where a smooth selection of a successor to Kalyan Singh became impossible.

R.V. MOORTHY
Samajwadi Party president
Mulayam Singh Yadav.

There are suggestions within the BJP that Rajnath Singh also played a part in this operation: he was by then sure of retaining his position as president of the State party unit and did not want Mishra or Lalji Tandon to become Chief Minister. The choice of Gupta suits Rajnath Singh; it is unlikely that Gupta, a septuagenarian who is returning to active politics after a long gap, can become a power centre in his own right.

IN the midst of all these, supporters of Kalraj Mishra and Lalji Tandon have advanced a radical line: that the central leadership provoke Kalyan Singh into leaving the party. According to them, even if Kalyan Singh teams up with Mulayam Singh and consoli dates the backward class vote, such a coalition can be countered by an alliance between the BJP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Mishra and Tandon have good equations with BSP leader Mayawati.

Leaders close to Advani have opposed this proposal. According to them, such a course of action would trigger a shift in the support of Muslims from the BSP to the S.P., which would render a BJP-BSP combine weak. Just how the tussle will unfold is to be s een, but it is clear that the confusion within the BJP is far from resolved despite Kalyan Singh's removal.

Party leaders such as Rajnath Singh and Gupta hope that they will be able to show better results on the two other problems identified by those who campaigned for Kalyan Singh's removal. Gupta is known for his austerity and integrity, and there is no like lihood of any undue interference in the administration by his relatives and friends. And since Rajnath Singh and Gupta have a good rapport, there could be better understanding between the party organisation and the administration. How far the new Chief M inister, who has not held an administrative office for long, will depend on bureaucrats will be watched with interest.