COVER STORY

A close race

Tamil voters may hold the key in the December 21 presidential elections in Sri Lanka. But how many will actually vote?

V.S. SAMBANDAN

"The military don't start wars. Politicians start wars."

- William Westmoreland

SRI LANKA is at a crucial political juncture. An estimated 11.8 million voters approach the presidential election scheduled for December 21. The two main contestants are President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Opposition leader Ranil Wickremasinghe.

Given the country's sensitive voting structure, the minority vote will determine the outcome. Support for the two main contestants, fielded by the ruling People's Alliance (P.A.) and the Opposition United National Party (UNP), is evenly balanced.

In the 1994 elections, Chandrika Kumaratunga, contesting on a promise of bringing peace to the northern area, won a landslide victory with the support of the Tamil vote. This time around, she is determined that there will be no cessation of hostilities u ntil the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is militarily weakened and brought to the negotiating table on the government's terms.

GEMUNU AMARASINGHE/ AP
President Chandrika Kumaratunga at the election commissioner's office to file her nomination papers.

The ruling formation is further handicapped by the current military setbacks in the Wanni region.

Wickremasinghe, who had remained silent on the Government's peace package for the last four years, approaches the elections with a "pact with the people" agenda, which includes, among other things, talks with the Tigers and a promise of "rehabilitating t he militant cadres" after finding a solution to the conflict.

While Chandrika Kumaratunga presents the "peace package" that she was unable to push through in Parliament owing to the absence of a two-thirds majority, Wickremasinghe pins his hopes on the "pact".

For his part, V. Prabakaran, the LTTE supremo, has placed the militarisation issue clearly on the agenda by launching the third phase of Operation Oyatha Alaigal soon after the election dates were announced. Scoring victory after victory in the eastern p arts of the Wanni, the LTTE moved to the western flank, thereby maintaining pressure on the Government, and consequently, on the southern polity.

The LTTE offensive also ties up the resolution of the ethnic conflict with military action and comes as a challenge to the island's liberal-thinking peace constituency.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the electioneering will be the manner in which the majority vote will be sought. The Tamil voters, for all practical purposes, have distanced themselves from Chandrika, who was elected last time on the promise of br inging about an "honourable peace". The experience of the past four years has, however, made it impossible for even moderate Tamil politicians to tell voters to back her this time. "We do not have anything to show the Tamils that concrete gains have been made," a Tamil politician said. Another said that he was likely to be dismissed by the Tamil electorate if he sought their vote for the President.

Wickremasinghe's position is no better. Even those Tamil voters who are opposed to the candidature of Chandrika Kumaratunga are reluctant to espouse the cause of the UNP. Anxious to distance themselves from the mainstream parties, overall a large section of the Tamils seem to show a lack of interest in the elections.

"It is an election with which we are not concerned," said a voter in Vavuniya. Echoing similar sentiments, some residents of Jaffna said that it was practically "a southern election". One voter said: "With the Army present all over this place, the though t of an election is secondary to our interests."

The eastern Batticaloa district overwhelmingly voted for Chandrika Kumaratunga last time. This time the situation has changed. "We gave her the largest number of votes, but we are disappointed," a Tamil leader from the area said.

This sets the stage for the ruling coalition to succumb to pressures from majoritarian sentiments. The recent crossing over of some known Sinhala hardliners from the UNP - Nanda Mathews, Wijepala Mendis and Susil Moonasinghe - points to this possibility. Significantly, Moonasinghe stated in clear terms after his cross-over that he was opposed to the peace package which alters the unitary status of the Constitution. He added that he was, prior to his defection, proposed by the island's Buddhist clergy as a presidential candidate.

GEMUNU AMARASINGHE/ AP
UNP leader Ranil Wickremasinghe, after filing his nomination papers on November 16.

The continued impasse on the conflict-resolution front, and the military actions in the north, could also mean a reduction in the number of Tamils who will cast their votes. With the LTTE capturing more territory, there is a possibility of the elections turning out to be predominantly southern (read Sinhalese) affair.

With 13 candidates in the fray, the largest number in any presidential election in the country, the coming weeks promise to throw up a cacophony of voices. The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) has fielded a politburo member, Nandana Gunathilaka, who espou ses a single-point agenda of the abolition of the Executive Presidency. During the previous election, the JVP had withdrawn its candidate in favour of Chandrika Kumaratunga as she had promised to do away with the Executive Presidency. Given the nature of its Left-wing constituency, the JVP could eat into the votes of the P.A. This is an added disadvantage for the P.A., as already the incumbency factor is working against it. The UNP, on the other hand, is yet to be seen as a party which could provide an alternative.

Vasudeva Nanayakkara of the Left and Democratic Alliance has the backing of non-governmental organisations. He hopes that the Tamil vote would come his way. He has promised to stop the war and end the difficulties faced by Tamils.

Other contestants include Harishchandra Wijayatunga of the Sinhalaye Mahasammathe Bhoomiputra Pakshya, who is for a "Sinhala-Buddhist state"; Rajiva Wijesinha, an academician belonging to the Liberal Party; and Tennyson Edirisurya, who has declared his o pposition to the Executive Presidency. Edirisurya has called upon the voters to invalidate their votes and has promised to do so himself.

Militarisation of Madhu V.S. SAMBANDAN REVERED by people of all religious faiths, the Roman Catholic Madhu church, in the battle zone, has been a nest of peace through the island's bloodiest conflicts. The Dutch-period shrine was shelled on November 21, leaving 38 civilians dead. The Sacred H eart chapel and a section of the main shrine were damaged. During periods of turmoil, the shrine and its precincts, an enclave of tranquillity, have offered refuge to thousands of displaced persons, almost entirely Tamil. Priests had persuaded both the Sri Lankan Army and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LT TE) not to take their battle to the pilgrimage centre. The situation, however, changed gradually since March. Once the Sri Lankan security forces gained control over the shrine, the LTTE left the area. A minimal presence of government commandos was maintained there. The priests protested against the militarisation of the pilgrimage centre. The Government took ov er Madhu in March just ahead of the Provincial Council elections in the south and interpreted this as a "military gain". The town was soon given power supply. Simultaneously, thousands of refugees who had lived there for years were evacuated and "rehabil itated" either in their villages or in government-held areas. In mid-November, the shrine was back in focus. As the LTTE moved westwards with its Operation Unceasing Waves III, some 3,500 persons from Mannar district moved into the church as refugees. The Tigers had earlier taken towns and villages to the north, an d civilians had flocked to Madhu. The Tigers followed suit. On November 18, government troops left the shrine and the Tigers gained control over the church and its precincts. Two days later, government troops "regained control over Madhu". According to the priests, "the Army came in with its armoured cars into the pilgrimage centre". The peace of the church was shattered by artillery fire the same night. The Lankan Defence Ministry, which had maintained silence on the loss of Madhu, blamed the LTTE: it said that "after the security forces consolidated the area," the LTTE "launched a heavy- artillery-and-mortar attack indiscriminately on the Madhu church premises." Church authorities said that 13 of those killed were children. At least 56 people, including 25 children were injured. Rev. Dr. Rayappu Joseph, the Bishop of Mannar and the secretary of the Catholic Bishops' Conference of Sri Lanka, said: "Such a desecration has never happened of in the church's 450-year history." Church leaders appealed to "both the state forces and the LTTE to immediately withdraw from the sacred area of the shrine of Madhu... to strictly refrain from using Madhu for any strategic or political advantage... and leave Madhu completely free for the pilgrims to visit the shrine without any restriction for their spiritual purposes."