COVER STORY

Popular perceptions

Most Pakistanis seem relieved that the Nawaz Sharif regime has been toppled, and look to the military regime to clean up the economic mess. But this does not quite conceal the real concerns about the country's future.

RASHEEDA BHAGAT
recently in Pakistan

A COUPLE of days after the Nawaz Sharif Government was toppled in Pakistan, Bilal Musharraf, son of General Pervez Musharraf who led the coup, had quite a lot to say about his father and his action.

Evidently smarting from the international criticism that his father had been subjected to since the coup, Bilal, who lives in the United States, said in a message posted at a Web site popular among overseas Pakistanis: "My father is a self-made man and I wish to state this up front that he has made a conscious effort to never abuse his influence for personal gain." He described his father as being "thoroughly professional" and justified the coup by saying that the Army chief had no choice but to resort to it. "My immediate family," Bilal claimed, "has managed with the income of a military officer and there have been no complaints. There is only relief that he has made it this far without compromising on his ethics... Today, he is the Chief Executive of Pakistan."

At about the same time that Bilal was preening over his father's success, Hasan Sharif, son of the ousted Prime Minister and now a student in London, was issuing an appeal to the international community to use its weight to secure his father's release.

The Commonwealth suspended Pakistan, and the rest of the international community urged the military ruler to restore democratic rule at the earliest. In this background, the rest of the world is puzzled by the fact that Pakistanis themselves do not seem to be overly worried about the toppling of a democratic regime in Islamabad. On the contrary, Pakistanis seemed to be celebrating the fall of the "corrupt government of Mian Nawaz Sharif".

In Lahore, Rawalpindi and Karachi, people have been openly saying: Yeh lootmar aur jhoot bolney ki sarkar se tau armywalley behtar hei (Compared to this looting, lying and fraudulent government, the Army people are better). Stunned as it was by such expressions of popular approval for the coup, the Pakistan Muslim League, the ousted party of government, took almost a week to demand the release of the dismissed Prime Minister and the restoration of democracy.

KHALID MUSTAFA, a Karachi-based industrialist, said that Pakistanis were celebrating the advent of a military regime "because they believe that what we have had for the last 10 years is not real democracy."

According to Mustafa, the belief that a democratic system would be more sensitive to the problems of the people and improve their lot had been belied in Pakistan. The people, he said, were tired of one regime coming in "only to investigate the corruption and bank frauds committed by politicians of the previous regime. Then those in power would go ahead to commit an even bigger fraud on the people." But this time around, Mustafa added, politicians from the ousted ruling party as well as the former Opposition would be in the dock. "There is a lot of hope that corruption cases against all of them will be investigated without fear or favour."

However, not many people share this optimism. Ghulam Kibria, a former United Nations consultant who served as a technocrat in the Zulfikar Ali Bhutto regime, has little hope that the "looted millions from bank defaulters and other corrupt politicians can ever be brought back into the exchequer because the money has already gone out of the country."

In a telephonic interview from Karachi, Kibria said: "This is the fourth time that Generals have taken over the governance of Pakistan. But there are two big differences. One, this time it was a counter-military coup against a civilian coup that was planned against the Generals. Two, this time there is no jubilation as had been experienced following the previous three military coups. But there is definitely a huge sigh of relief over the fact that the corrupt Sharif government is gone."

Kibria acknowledged that the rest of the world and a section of the intelligentsia in Pakistan were worried about the dismissal of a democratically elected government and the prospect of a spell of military rule. "But," he said, "what the rest of the world, and even some people within Pakistan, do not understand is that there has been no real democratic political process in Pakistan. People have not really been involved in the democratic process... I would even say there is no real political consciousness among the people of Pakistan. They have always looked for saviours in their politicians, whether it was Benazir Bhutto or Nawaz Sharif. The All India Muslim League had neither a political process nor inner-party democracy and we inherited this."

Kibria attributed the relative success of Indian democracy to the fact that the political system had over the years become inclusive and had accommodated the traditionally underprivileged sections of society. "Things changed in India to a certain extent, with the result that backward classes and Dalits were involved in government and became MLAs and MPs."

Describing Sharif as "an elected dictator", Kibria said that his regime had not granted autonomy to the provinces or to municipalities. "Municipal elections have not been held in Karachi for several years," he added.

K.M. CHOUDARY/ AP
Celebrations on the streets of Lahore after the military takeover. Public opinion within Pakistan has been largely supportive of the coup.

A Karachi-based executive who writes poetry under the pen name Baligh said that the dismissal of the Sharif regime had been greeted with relief, especially by the people in Karachi, "who had to bear the brunt of the increasing lawlessness and violence".

All talk of democracy was a sham in "this aristocratic land", he said: most Pakistanis were bitter that "in the last 10 years our democratically elected leaders have used every opportunity to take advantage of their positions for personal gain. The country is on the brink of bankruptcy but the personal assets of these people are ever-increasing; a handful of them can, with their off-shore assets, pay off the entire debt of the country."

Baligh added that there was a lot of expectation that the military regime would introduce accountability and bring the bank defaulters and tax evaders to book. In his opinion, geopolitical and regional considerations today - "with barely 100 days to go for the new millennium" - were such that it would not be possible for a military ruler to stay on for long. "It will not be possible for the current CEO to follow in the footsteps of his predecessors like Gen. Zia-ul-Haq and hold office for an extended period. I think he should remain in power for a maximum of two years and bring in technocrats and experienced politicians to take Pakistan out of the present economic mess."

The consensus in Pakistan is seemingly in favour of a "civilian government made up of technocrats and experts". But as an editorial in the Pakistani English daily Dawn cautioned, although such "well-meant" advice from various quarters was "driven by a sincere desire to see the country put back on the right path... prolonged deviations from the democratic path have invariably led to more problems than have been solved. All the stretches of military rule proved disastrous for Pakistan."

Sounding a note of caution against excessive expectations from "technocrats and experts", the editorial noted that in "all previous military regimes technocrats and bureaucrats have played major roles. They did not work wonders then. It strains credulity to think that they will do any better now."

PAKISTANIS are at the moment celebrating their release from years of misgovernance: successive elected governments have demeaned democracy by indulging in large-scale corruption and chipped away at institutions such as the judiciary and the executive, and even the office of the President. However, the present euphoria cannot last long.

There are no magic wands or formulae to repair the damage done to the country's economy, which has been reduced to one of the wobbliest in the developing world. The educated sections and the intelligentsia in Pakistan wonder sceptically how long it will take the new rulers to step into the shoes of their predecessors and amass wealth.

It is in this light that Bilal Musharraf's claim about his father's integrity and ability to withstand pressure and not compromise on his ethics acquires significance. There are conflicting reports about Pervez Musharraf: one says he is an Islamic fundamentalist and is soft on the Taliban; another, echoed by the U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan, William B. Milam, describes him as a "moderate man". Observers will be looking at the events of the coming days, the kind of people he appoints to key administrative positions and the manner in which he presides over Pakistan's destiny, to draw inferences on Musharraf's beliefs and commitments. However, India, which perceives him as the architect of the Kargil misadventure, is certain to view him and what he says with scepticism.

MEANWHILE, there is speculation in Pakistan about Sharif's fate. Lt. Gen. (Retd) Moin Uddin Haider, who was the Sindh Governor for two years before he was replaced by a Sharif crony in June 1999, says that Sharif will "reap as he sowed"; he, however, rules out the possibility of Sharif's execution.

Kibria agrees. "It is difficult," he says, "to make a prediction now as there is no political process in the country at the moment. But I doubt very much that he will ever be tried. Even if he is... I believe he will get away and will not be punished."

At the moment, however, the mood of the common person and what she or he thinks of the military regime may be summed up in what a Karachi-based businessman has to say: "We Pakistanis are tough guys. We love to be ruled by iron hands. Are we shedding tears for democracy, did you ask? What rubbish. The people on the roads do not give a damn about the system. They want only roti, kapada aur makan... and of course occasional peace."