WORLD AFFAIRS

Shrinking numbers in Jaffna

A preliminary Census under way in Sri Lanka's Northern peninsula points to striking changes in the demographic pattern.

V.S. SAMBANDAN
in Colombo

THE battle-scarred Northern peninsula of Sri Lanka could well be moving towards the 21st century with a dwindling population figure. As a preliminary enumeration of the inhabitants of the Tamil-majority area gets under way, indications are that the numbers may show a decline from the 1981 count.

The initiative launched by the security forces and village-level officials, although not intended to be as comprehensive an exercise as a regular, full-fledged Census, aims to arrive at a base figure of the number of persons living in the peninsula. More than as a mere preparatory exercise, the headcount gains significance as it would be the first such exercise since the escalation of internal strife over power-sharing between the majority Sinhalese and the minority Tamils.

SRIYANTHA WALPOLA
On a Jaffna street. There has been a gradual decline in the population of Tamils in the Northern peninsula.

As in the case of any conflict, demographic factors have a major role in establishing identity and kinship patterns. With numbers being a decisive part of resolving a conflict, the Jaffna peninsula may find itself lagging behind in human resources - a vital component when it comes to social restructuring.

The 1981 Census enumerated 8.3 lakh inhabitants in Jaffna. Demographers and politicians are of the opinion that as a result of armed militancy since 1983, the actual numbers may have dropped. Politicians and academicians feel that the gradual decline in population would have a bearing on the conflict. According to a Tamil politician, it will pave the way for some sort of solution, of course loaded in favour of the majority population. This line of argument is based on the premise that demographically Tamils are in a minority here, and that the second largest ethnic group in the island is neither large enough to force political change nor so minuscule a minority as to assimilate itself with the majority. Going further in this line of thinking, it is argued that the strife would subside when Tamils become an "insignificant minority", left with the option of assimilating themselves with the larger majority or braving the possibility of being ignored.

But then, Jaffna district had witnessed out-migration even before the ethnic war took a violent turn. During the first Census conducted in 1871, 10.3 per cent of the country's population lived in Jaffna. In 1981, the last time a full-scale Census was undertaken, the figure stood at 5.6 per cent.

The migratory pattern was mainly influenced by economic factors: to secure employment that provided a steady income. The pre-1983 exodus from the dry peninsular region was mainly to the wet southern areas as well as to the regions of Vavuniya and Batticaloa, which are not entirely dependent on agriculture.

The peninsula still had the largest concentration of Sri Lankan Tamils in the island, which was not the situation when the Census was taken in 1881, 1891 and 1901. Neither the Indian Tamils nor the several stateless Tamils who were given citizenship were placed in a separate category when they reported to the Census officials as Sri Lankan Tamils. This gave scope for the distortion of the population figures of Sri Lankan Tamils.

The annual rate of growth of the population of Sri Lankan Tamils was 1.4 per cent between 1921 and 1961. This rose to 2.7 per cent in the post-War years (1946-53) and thereafter slowed down until 1971. Gaining momentum in the 1970s, the annual growth rate it reached an all-time high of 2.98 per cent in the inter-Census period (1971-81). This phenomenon, according to the 1981 Census report, "in all probability, is an over-estimate of the growth rate for this period, resulting from the fact that the Sri Lanka Tamils enumerated in the 1981 Census include a sizable number of Indian Tamils who had received Sri Lanka citizenship and reported themselves as Sri Lanka Tamils."

(in thousands)

Source: Statistical abstract of the Democratic and Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka,1997

Thus, there has been a consistent change in the demographic profile of Sri Lankan Tamils vis-a-vis the overall population of the country, a trend that, according to Tamil politicians, has not worked in their favour since the onset of ethnic strife.

There is a correlation between the post-1983 decline in population and the decline in numbers among the educated class in Jaffna, as it has always been in the forefront of education in the island-nation, as well as the ethnic composition of the peninsula, especially in the backdrop of moves at "ethnic cleansing" in the past decade.

On the impact of the changed demographic composition, there are two strands of opinion: that it would put a damper on political action, and that migration has resulted in a large diaspora that would keep the separatist movement alive.

The demographic shift could also help facilitate a solution to the conflict. Says one Tamil political leader: "Most of those affected by the Sinhala Only Act, as well as the standardisation policies, have left Jaffna and the island for good. Then there are others who have moved out of Jaffna to settle down in Colombo. These two categories are unlikely to return. A large percentage of those remaining in the peninsula are poor and cannot afford the luxury of travel." The issue of conflict, therefore, would have to be addressed taking into account the deprived status of those who have no option but to remain in the peninsula. "This could provide an ideal starting point as there is an increasing urge for a peaceful settlement."