WORLD AFFAIRS

Uncertain prospects in Nepal

The third general elections in Nepal is likely to throw up another hung Parliament.

KALYAN CHAUDHURI
in Kathmandu

EVEN as the Himalayan kingdom of Nepal prepared for general elections in two phases - on May 3 and 17 - political observers were in no position to make any definitive prediction about the poll outcome. According to sources close to the contesting parties and analysts attached to some foreign embassies in Kathmandu, there is a strong possibility of another hung Parliament that will provide scope for the ruling Nepali Congress (N.C.) or the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist) or CPN(UML), to form a coalition government with the support of their respective political allies and independents. Although the CPN(UML) has been a partner in the N.C.-led coalition Government, there is no electoral alliance between the two parties and they are contesting separately.

Meanwhile, the death of the CPN(UML)'s prime ministerial candidate and main campaigner Manmohan Adhikari, a week ahead of the first phase of elections, came as a setback for the party.

THE run-up to the third general elections in Nepal after the introduction of multi-party democracy, which replaced the palace-dominated party-less panchayat system in 1990, was marked by a deepening sense of uncertainty, insecurity and cynicism among the people. While political stability has continued to elude the country - there have been as many as five coalition governments since the snap elections of 1994 - what is of particular concern is the unabated killings resulting from encounters between the outlawed Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) and the police.

ABC PRESS PHOTOS, NEPAL
Manmohan Adhikari addresses an election meeting of the CPN(UML). The sudden death of the veteran Communist leader was a major blow to the party.

During the course of electioneering, senior leaders of the two major political parties, the N.C. and the CPN(UML), warned the people that the situation might worsen if the people did not vote to power a strong majority government. Top N.C. leaders, including Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, who has been projected by the party as its new prime ministerial candidate, told Frontline that fragile and short-lived coalition governments had proved totally incapable of saving the country from the quagmire.

Adhikari had shared the same concern about political instability and the fractured polity. The CPN(UML), which captured 89 of the 205 seats in the Pratinidhi Sabha in the 1994 elections, split vertically in March 1998 when 40 MPs, under the leadership of Sahana Pradhan and Bamdev Gautam, left the party to form Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist Leninist).

Meanwhile, open rivalry among three factions within the N.C. has weakened the party, which came to power winning 114 of the 205 seats in the first multi-party elections in 1991. The Government headed by Koirala had lost its majority in early 1994 when a government-sponsored confidence motion was defeated by the Opposition, following the absention of 36 MPs of the N.C. Koirala recommended the dissolution of Parliament and holding of snap elections, ignoring the dissidents' demand for a change of leadership.

The pro-palace Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) was also divided into two factions, one led by Surya Bahadur Thapa and another by Lokendra Bahadur Chand. The two RPP factions headed two short-lived governments - Thapa with 11 MPs was supported from outside by the N.C., and Chand with eight MPs by the CPN(UML). The Terai-based Nepal Sadbhavana Party (NSP), with three MPs, was a partner in all the coalition governments.

ABC PRESS PHOTOS, NEPAL
Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala.

THIS time the RPP and the NSP have fielded a large number of candidates, despite the fact that they have a limited political following, in the hope that they would be able to play a crucial role in government-formation in the event of a hung Parliament.

While the N.C. is contesting all the 205 seats, the CPN(UML) is contesting 195 seats, the CPN(ML) 197 seats, RPP(Thapa) 197 seats, RPP(Chand) 184 seats, NSP 68 seats, and the Nepal Mazdoor Kisan Party 41 seats. There are 44 independents as well.

In the first phase, elections were held in 92 constituencies. The total number of voters is 1,35,18,839. Chief Election Commissioner Bishnu Pratap Saha said that staggered elections were necessitated by the fact that certain areas were sensitive from the law-and-order point of view.

Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala is contesting from the eastern constituencies of Morang I and Sunsari V. He faces a rebel N.C. candidate in Morang I. Elections in Kathmandu I and Kathmandu II were countermanded following the death of Manmohan Adhikari. N.C. leader Krishna Prasad Bhattarai is contesting from Kathmandu I and Parsa constituencies, and CPN(ML) leader Bamdev Gautam from Bardia I and Kathmandu I. RPP president Surya Bahadur Thapa faces opposition from within his party in his home constituency of Dhankuta II.

While the N.C. and the CPN(UML) condemned violence by the Maoist movement on the eve of elections, the CPN(ML) tried to gain its sympathy. Launching his election campaign in the the insurgency-affected areas of midwestern Nepal, Koirala launched a frontal attack on the Maoists who have been operating from the remote parts of Nepal for over three years. "The election is an opportunity to take the country out of violence and terror. People should eliminate the forces that believe in violence through the ballot," said the Prime Minister.

ABC PRESS PHOTOS, NEPAL
RPP(Thapa) president Surya Bahadur Thapa.

Underground Maoists, however, found an ardent supporter of their cause in CPN(ML) general secretary Bamdev Gautam. He praised the Maoists who, he said, were fighting the state on an empty stomach. "If I meet underground Maoist leaders Baburam Bhattarai and Prachanda, I will propose to them to work together for the interests of the Nepali people," he said. Although the CPN(ML) is seeking to form a government of "patriotic and Leftist" forces, its immediate objective is to check its bete noire, the CPN(UML), from winning a majority and place itself in a position where it could bargain for power, analysts said.

As reports suggested that the CPN(UML) was not likely to suffer as much damage as was expected due to the vertical split in the party and that CPN(ML) was likely to emerge a loser, disgruntled CPN(ML) leaders had no other option but to project themselves as patriotic revolutionaries. The Maoist leaders apparently think that a hung Parliament would suit them; in fact, they fear that a powerful and stable government with a popular mandate might suppress them effectively.

After the murder of CPN(UML) candidate Yedu Gautam by Maoists in Rukum district in March, CPN(UML) leaders have publicly condemned Maoist activities.

N.C. leader Krishna Prasad Bhattarai told Frontline that his party would get a majority. "I am confident that our party will get no less than 130 seats," he said. The CPN(UML) under Adhikari too was sure of gaining majority. While CPN(UML) and CPN(ML) cadres clashed with each other, N.C. leaders organised countrywide election meetings. Both Koirala and Bhattarai undertook tours across the country.

"It is natural for the larger parties to aspire for a majority. But both the N.C. and the CPN(UML) have failed to rationalise their demand for a majority government," said Krishna Hachhethu, a political scientist with the Centre for Nepal and Asian Studies of Tribhuban University.

While both the CPN(UML) and the RPP were trying hard to cover the wounds inflicted by splits, the N.C., though apparently unified, is not in a position of advantage. The party has been fortunate to avoid a major intra-party rebellion of the kind it had seen in the 1994 mid-term polls but divisions and acts of deception within the N.C. have become a rule rather than an exception.

The CPN(UML), on its part, was trying hard to project itself as a viable alternative to the N.C. The CPN(ML)'s efforts to isolate its parent organisation by bringing all smaller Leftist parties under its fold, however, failed. The CPN(ML) and six other small Leftist parties contested the elections separately. The CPN(UML) opted for a distinct approach as it could not find a common platform with the Leftist groups. But a loose alliance was forged with the orthodox Communist Party of Nepal (Mashal) and the United People's Front in order to defeat the N.C. and the CPN(ML).

The party kicked off its election campaign accommodating as many people-friendly programmes as possible, aimed at voters from various social strata. "Unlike other Leftist parties, the CPN(UML) is one of the architects of the present Constitution. That is why our party has been working to strengthen the Constitution and multiparty democracy," said CPN(UML) Central Committee member Raghuji Panta.

ABC PRESS PHOTOS, NEPAL
Veteran N.C. leader Krishna Prasad Bhattarai.

CPN(UML) leaders tried to convince a sceptical group of voters that they also believed in liberal democracy, freedom of expression and human rights vis-a-vis their Marxist and Leninist ideology. Its leaders argue that their party is purely nationalist. The party's election campaign this time is distinctly different from its campaigns for the two previous elections. For the first time, the CPN(UML) approached elections in a hostile atmosphere as underground Maoists and the CPN(ML) launched attacks against its candidates. However, the CPN(UML) seemed in relatively better shape than its rival, the N.C.

According to political analysts, the people of Nepal are facing the election process with a sense of disenchantment and cynicism. The major political parties seem to have suffered an erosion of their credibility over the last few years as a consequence of the instability of the political process. If people this time choose not to give a majority to any single party, it may throw the country into a state of acute political instability.