POLITICS

Uncertain in Uttar Pradesh

The political situation in Uttar Pradesh is becoming increasingly complex with BJP dissidents and the alliance partners of the party stepping up their campaign against Chief Minister Kalyan Singh.

VENKITESH RAMAKRISHNAN

ALL through April, the fortunes of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Kalyan Singh swung like a pendulum, between serious threat to the survival of his Government and a fresh reprieve. In this dicey situation, the divisions within the State unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party as also the ruling coalition assumed unprecedented dimensions, so much so that the BJP and its allies admitted that they were ill-prepared to face elections to the 85 Lok Sabha seats in the State.

Central to the problem is the resentment, within the BJP and the coalition partners, the Uttar Pradesh Loktantrik Congress (UPLC) and the Jantantrik Bahujan Samaj Party, over Kalyan Singh's "autocratic style of functioning". The strategies of Opposition parties such as the Samajwadi Party (S.P.), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress(I), have had an add-on effect. In a sense, it is the inability of the Opposition parties to link themselves successfully with the dissidents in the BJP or with the dissatisfied allies that has helped the Kalyan Singh Ministry survive. However, with the Lok Sabha elections approaching, there are indications that the S.P. is keen on a decisive tie-up with both the groups.

It is learnt that the dissidents plan another mission to New Delhi. According to a senior dissident leader, 50 BJP MLAs will visit Delhi to demand Kalyan Singh's removal. He said that the dissidents, ranks had swollen in the past month, making them strong enough to strike.

SUBIR ROY
Chief Minister Kalyan Singh.

Dissidence gained momentum in the first week of April after Family Welfare Minister Devendra Singh Bhole resigned, accusing the Chief Minister of "corruption, prejudice and being under the influence of bureaucrats". Immediately after submitting his resignation, Bhole, along with Sarjit Singh Dang, MLA, and Rajesh Pandey, Member of the Legislative Council, led a delegation of 30 party rebels to New Delhi and submitted a memorandum to A.B. Vajpayee. The dissidents argued that Kalyan Singh's leadership affected the party's organisational development and that this was bound to impair its electoral prospects. "This trend can be reversed if Kalyan Singh is replaced," they claim. They have adopted a more aggressive posture as their earlier complaint to the Central leadership did not result in any concrete action. A rebel leader told Frontline that they were now in a "do or die" mood. If the intensity of the dissidence is anything to go by, this statement is no exaggeration. It is learnt that already 30 MLAs have prepared their resignation letters, which are expected to be submitted to the party's national president, Kushabhau Thakre, if the demand to replace Kalyan Singh is not accepted.

Immediately after the collapse of the Vajpayee Government at the Centre, many rebel leaders started receiving threatening telephone calls. The caller warned them that they and their family would come to great harm if the activities against the Chief Minister were not stopped. Kalyan Singh went on the offensive and told a public meeting: "If a king's pleasure does not bring benefits to those who receive his benevolence and if a king's anger does not bring damage to those who are the targets of his anger, he is not fit to be a king." He went on to imply that dissidence would be put down: "I am not an inefficient king." Obviously, the rebels drew the right conclusion.

The Chief Minister's supporters, however, scoff at their efforts. A senior leader, referring to the campaign in April, pointed out that although the dissidents thought that they were on the verge of victory, everything came to naught.

This bravado notwithstanding, it is clear that the pro-Kalyan Singh camp is unnerved. The idea of a change of leadership had the sanction of Vajpayee and Murli Manohar Joshi, long-time adversaries of Kalyan Singh, and was almost approved by Kushabhau Thakre. The threat to Kalyan Singh became all the more real when the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) withdrew support to the Vajpayee Government and the Central leadership made a desperate attempt to woo the BSP. Vajpayee's confidants in the State BJP, such as Lalji Tandon, had suggested the removal of Kalyan Singh and soft-pedalling on the corruption cases against former Chief Minister and BSP leader Mayawati. Even as the proposal received wide support among the Central leadership, Kalyan Singh rushed to New Delhi and used his mentor L.K. Advani's clout with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh to stall it.

YET the Chief Minister's troubles are far from over. Apparently, 25 of the 50 MLAs opposed to him are even ready to quit the BJP in order to carry forward the struggle to a decisive end. If that happens, the Kalyan Singh Government, which enjoys a slender majority of seven, will collapse. This could also lead to simultaneous elections to the Assembly and the Lok Sabha.

It is in this context that the S.P.'s political strategy comes into play. Already fighting a vigorous battle to retain its position as the foremost secular party in the State, it would prefer simultaneous elections as such a scenario would help it focus more on regional issues. If the Lok Sabha elections alone are held, the Congress(I) has an advantage because issues such as stability and proven record of governance at the Centre will dominate the campaign.

The coming days are crucial for all political forces in the State.