India's National Magazine
From the publishers of THE HINDU

Vol. 16 :: No. 05 :: Feb. 27 - Mar. 12, 1999

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INDIA AND PAKISTAN

THE BUS TO PAKISTAN

Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's bus ride to Wagah and the promises he and his host, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, made later in Lahore to the people of India and Pakistan are only a big first step in a very long journey to friendship between the two countries.

AMIT BARUAH
in Lahore

THE ice has been broken at last. When Atal Behari Vajpayee crossed the Wagah border checkpost on February 20, he not only negotiated a formidable physical barrier but also broke through the mental barriers that prevented better relations between India and Pakistan. However, whether the initiative amounts to a genuine forward movement in terms of bilateral relations remains an open question.

In terms of atmospherics, it was an extraordinary occasion indeed - questions about needed substance notwithstanding. As the golden-coloured bus from Delhi, bound for Lahore, came to a carefully rehearsed stop, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif opened the gate of Pakistan to receive the Prime Minister of India and his delegation of eminent persons, who had boarded the Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC) bus at Amritsar airport. Vajpayee's visit to Pakistan was the first by an Indian Prime Minister in a decade - the last one was by Rajiv Gandhi in July 1989.

On his arrival at Wagah, Vajpayee described the visit as a "defining moment" in South Asian history. As one awaits the verdict of history, it can be safely said that the bus journey and its symbolism conveyed to the people of both countries that there is a desire at the highest level to overcome the bitterness and to improve relations.

It was a 24-hour visit, but as Vajpayee claimed: "It was brief, but substantive." The two Prime Ministers were closeted for some 20 minutes at Wagah, no doubt setting the overall tone for the visit which was marked by warmth and friendliness from the Pakistani side. Sharif and Vajpayee had one-on-one interaction at least on two other occasions. Pokhran-II and the war of words and Pakistan's retaliatory nuclear tests that followed were forgotten for a moment as the two Prime Ministers attempted to address the nuclear issue in a post-Pokhran/Chagai environment.

There is little doubt that the Lahore Declaration that they signed, the joint statement that they issued and the memorandum of understanding (MoU) that the Foreign Secretaries signed are significant. They bind both countries to the process of dialogue on a range of issues and brings in political involvement by getting the Foreign Ministers into the process. The most important document signed in Lahore is perhaps the MoU, for it addresses the concerns of the United States-led Western community. It says: "The two sides shall engage in bilateral consultations on security concepts, and nuclear doctrines, with a view to developing confidence-building measures (CBMs) in the nuclear and conventional fields, aimed at avoidance of conflict."

Further, the two countries agreed to provide each other advance information about flight tests of ballistic missile and conclude a bilateral agreement on the issue. "The two sides are fully committed to undertaking national measures to reducing the risks of accidental or unauthorised use of nuclear weapons under their respective control. The two sides fully undertake to notify each other immediately in the event of any accidental, unauthorised or unexplained incident that could create the risk of a fallout with adverse consequences for both sides, or an outbreak of nuclear war between the two countries, as well as to adopt measures aimed at diminishing the possibility of such actions, or such incidents being misinterpreted by the other. The two sides shall identify/establish the communication mechanism for this purpose," the memorandum stated.

S. ARNEJA
Nawaz Sharif greets Vajpayee as the Prime Minister alights from the bus onto Pakistani territory.

Also, the two countries promised that they would continue to adhere to their separate, voluntary moratoriums on nuclear tests, except under exceptional circumstances which threatened to jeopardise either country's supreme interests. "The two sides shall conclude an agreement on prevention of incidents at sea in order to ensure safety of navigation by naval vessels, and aircraft belonging to the two sides. The two sides shall periodically review the implementation of existing CBMs and where necessary, set up appropriate consultative mechanisms to monitor and ensure effective implementation of these CBMs," the document said.

It also envisages a review of the existing communication links, such as the one between the Directors-General of Military Operations (DGMOs), with a view to upgrading and improving them, and to providing for fail-safe communications. "The two sides shall engage in bilateral consultations on security, disarmament and non-proliferation issues within the context of negotiations on these issues in multilateral fora," the memorandum said, adding that in order to conclude bilateral agreements, these measures be worked out by experts from the two countries at mutually convenient dates before mid-1999.

According to the joint statement, the Vajpayee-Sharif talks focussed on the entire range of bilateral relations, regional cooperation within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and issues of international concern. "The two Foreign Ministers will meet periodically to discuss all issues of mutual concern, including nuclear-related issues," the statement said, adding that the two countries will consult each other on WTO (World Trade Organisation)-related issues with a view to coordinating their positions. "The two sides shall determine areas of cooperation in information technology, in particular for tackling the problems of Y2K. The two sides shall hold consultations with a view to further liberalising the visa and travel regime. The two sides shall appoint a two-member committee at ministerial level to examine humanitarian issues relating to civilian detainees and missing PoWs (prisoners of war)," the joint statement said.

THE Lahore Declaration, on the other hand, seeks to lay down the broad principles of an emerging India-Pakistan relationship, with the Prime Ministers of the two countries

• sharing a vision of peace and stability between their countries, and of progress and prosperity for their peoples;

• convinced that durable peace and development of harmonious relations and friendly cooperation will serve the vital interests of the peoples of the two countries, enabling them to devote their energies for a better future;

• recognising that the nuclear dimension of the security environment of the two countries adds to their responsibility for avoidance of conflict between the two countries;

• committed to the principles and purposes of the Charter of the United Nations, and the universally accepted principles of peaceful co-existence; and

• reiterating the determination of both countries to implementing the Simla agreement in letter and spirit.

The two Prime Ministers also agreed that the countries would intensify their efforts to resolve all outstanding issues, including the problem of Jammu and Kashmir; refrain from intervention and interference in each other's internal affairs; intensify their composite and integrated dialogue process for an early and positive outcome of the agreed bilateral agenda; take immediate steps to reduce the risk of accidental nuclear conflict; and discuss concepts and doctrines in order to elaborate CBMs in nuclear and conventional fields, aimed at preventing conflict. They reaffirmed their condemnation of terrorism in all forms.

ON the nuclear front, the two sides have agreed to hold bilateral discussions on security concepts and nuclear doctrines. While this may be pleasing to the West, one wonders if it will amount to anything substantial in the bilateral context given the fear, suspicion and secrecy that surround the nuclear strategies of both countries. It is clear that India and Pakistan, nudged and prodded by the U.S., are getting down to discussions on a strategic restraint regime. But whether they are able even to speak a common "strategic language" is a moot point.

The Lahore Declaration and the joint statement are silent on the crucial issue of non-deployment of nuclear weapons and missiles. Even a general reference to such objectives is conspicuously absent. For its part, Pakistan has stressed, perhaps as a matter of strategy, that it will not deploy missiles and weapons if India does likewise. Islamabad has been calling for direct negotiations in this regard.

The fact that the two countries have agreed in principle to hold talks on security concepts and nuclear doctrines is reflective of the success of the U.S. nuclear agenda. A further "push" to this agenda can be expected in the weeks and months ahead.

It needs to be appreciated that any genuine agreement with long-lasting value can only be the result of a home-grown process on both sides. In the past, Pakistan had belittled such a bilateral approach, pointing to the violation by India of a bilateral accord on non-production of chemical weapons. Even recently, Islamabad-based diplomats were told by Pakistan that India could not be trusted with regard to any unilateral, bilateral or multilateral moratorium on the production of fissile material pending a fissile missile cutoff treaty (FMCT) as it had violated earlier bilateral accords. Pakistan, in the not-so- distant past, has laid stress on an independent, international verification system, a proposal that India has so far rejected out of hand.

Another area in which the Lahore Declaration appears to be wanting is the question of visas. Although relaxing the requirement of police reporting is being considered, the system of city-specific visas seems to have come to stay. Also, the two Prime Ministers did not say anything on the crucial issue of reopening the consulates in Karachi and Mumbai, a move that would be widely welcomed by families divided by Partition. There is a promise in the joint statement that the two countries will hold consultations with a view to "further liberalising" the visa and travel regime. It is now up to the two governments to ensure that the promise is acted upon. Relief for the people needs to be tangible.

S. ARNEJA
Vajpayee and film star Shatrughan Sinha wave to the crowd as the bus comes to a halt at the Wagah border.

NAWAZ SHARIF personally supervised every detail for the visit. Vajpayee was given a banquet at the Lahore Fort. He also visited the Minar-i-Pakistan, where a resolution for the creation of Pakistan was moved in 1940.

In his address at a civic reception on February 21, Vajpayee made a reference to the propriety of his visit to the Minar. He said that some people interpreted his visit there as a stamp of approval for Pakistan but the fact was that Pakistan was a separate with its own stamp. Whether such an act would displease the proponents of the theory of "Akhand Bharat" among Vajpayee's own colleagues remains to be seen.

In his speech at the Governor House in Lahore, Vajpayee established a good rapport with the audience. His promise not to use nuclear weapons went down well, but his justification for Pokhran-II sounded a trifle unconvincing.

BY extending an invitation to Vajpayee, Sharif has galvanised right-wing sections in Pakistan who are opposed to any sort of friendly engagement with India until the Kashmir issue is resolved to their satisfaction. The Jamaat-i-Islami, which led the protests in Lahore, has considerable street power. Qazi Hussain Ahmed, the Jamaat chief, vowed to "pursue" Vajpayee wherever he went in Lahore. Finally, the Qazi was detained at his Lytton Road office and was released only after Vajpayee left on his onward journey. Qazi Ahmed told Frontline that India should "concede" that Kashmir was a disputed territory where a plebiscite had to be held. The Qazi also demanded of the Government of India that the Babri Masjid be rebuilt at the site of the original mosque which was destroyed on December 6, 1992.

IN a relationship as difficult as the one between India and Pakistan, negotiations and such declarations are a fine art. However, there are a host of agreements that have not been implemented and good intentions that have not been followed up, forming part of India-Pakistan history. Will Lahore prove to be any different? Will the promises made there transform themselves into reality? Will there be continued political will to surmount problems that may crop up at every stage of negotiations?

S. ARNEJA
The Delhi-Lahore bus arrives at the Wagah border.

In Lahore, the two Prime Ministers took a very small step forward in a very long journey. The responsibility to ensure that it does not become a case of "one step forward, two steps back" rests solely with the Prime Ministers and their respective governments.

Political will cannot be demonstrated in a one-off manner. For the bus diplomacy to have any real meaning, the two Prime Ministers will have to adopt a hands-on approach to the bilateral relationship. Yet another responsibility for both Vajpayee and Sharif will be to rein in the hawks on both sides.