India's National Magazine
From the publishers of THE HINDU

Vol. 16 :: No. 04 :: Feb. 13 - 26, 1999

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WORLD AFFAIRS

A victory for People's Alliance

The People's Alliance has wrested control of the North-Western Provincial Council from the UNP in a poll that witnessed instances of violence and rigging and a campaign that skirted provincial-level issues.

V.S. SAMBANDAN
in North-Western Province

A FEW hours after polling closed in Sri Lanka's North-Western Province on January 25, there was tight security around the district headquarters building at Kurunegala. As we drove down deserted roads, military police took up positions, signalling impending curfew restrictions.

With voting taking place in over 1,000 polling booths spread across two districts, the day was tense. According to the Commissioner of Elections, clashes between supporters of rival parties had affected polling at some 200 booths. Night curfew, which was imposed soon after the elections, ensured that the situation did not go out of hand.

The results were announced in the next couple of days, and the ruling People's Alliance (P.A.) won 30 of the 52 seats. Its S.B. Nawinna later took over as Chief Minister. The Opposition, and also "independent observers" of non-governmental organisations funded by foreign agencies, said that the elections were the "most violent" the island had ever had.

Instances of rigging were obvious. On the way to Anamaduwa town in Puttalam district, which had witnessed rising inter-party rivalry during the run-up to the polls, the Frontline team saw a police patrol party stop a van and seize from it weapons such as knives, sickles and axes. The policemen loaded the weapons on to a lorry. A constable approached the officer, who oversaw the operations, with election materials seized from the van. Obviously, rigging had taken place during the day.

SRIYANTHA WALPOLA
President Chandrika Kumaratunga with S.B. Nawinna, the newly elected Chief Minister of the North-Western Provincial Council.

When Wayamba went to the polls, the entire island anxiously awaited the outcome, for it was crucial for a variety of reasons. Issues ranging from the future course the P.A. and the Opposition United National Party (UNP) would take in national politics to the nuances thrown up by the participation of smaller contestants such as the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) are expected to be influenced by the outcome.

The post-poll configuration of the 52-member Provincial Council is: P.A. 30, UNP 19 and JVP 3. While the P.A. wrested control of the Province from the UNP, the JVP entered the Provincial Council through a clearly articulated avoidance of its earlier penchant for violence. Its 4 per cent vote share, seen together with the one per cent vote share of the New Left Front (NLF), perhaps points to a future for these Left parties in a polity that is moving towards a situation in which the electorate is increasingly impatient with the mainstream political parties.

During the campaigning, a middle-aged couple in Kurunegala town, who were supporters of the P.A., said: "There is really no clear choice between the P.A. and the UNP, and this could lead to more votes going to the JVP." This evaluation appeared reasonable, given the near-total absence of political debate during the run-up to the polls on issues concerning the Province.

The results are reassuring for the ruling party; however, they have put the Government on the defensive in the wake of widespread allegations of violence and electoral malpractices. The UNP has gone to court challenging the results and has threatened to stay away from the Provincial Council.

SRIYANTHA WALPOLA
UNP leader Ranil Wickremasinghe on the campaign trail.

In terms of vote-share, the UNP does not have much to be dismayed about as its support base has not shrunk significantly. It won 38 per cent of the popular vote; it would have made further gains if it had focussed on its provincial-level experience. (The UNP was in charge of the administration in the North-Western Province.)

The stage for a victory by default for the P.A. was set even before active campaigning began, with the UNP predicting that the elections would be "the most violent since independence". The UNP's campaign focus remained fixed on fearful scenarios; it did not shift to matters such as falling procurement prices, which are crucial for a predominantly agricultural province. "In Sri Lanka everything is looked at in the larger context," reasoned a senior UNP leader when asked why the UNP had not chosen to focus on issues concerning the people of the Province.

While allegations of violence and evidence of rigging exist, it is difficult to conjecture that the polls would have yielded a considerably different result if they had been held in a calmer atmosphere. A senior Member of Parliament said: "A few seats would have gone the other way, but the basic nature of the mandate would have remained."

SRIYANTHA WALPOLA
Left parties demanding fresh elections in the North-Western Provincial Council.

The overplay on violence, while signifying the sensitivity of the nation to the "disruption" of democratic processes, however, led to important issues being ignored. Some Sri Lankans were quick to react, comparing the situation to that in certain areas in India that witness violence during elections. However, the two situations do not merit comparison. A sampling of the "violent" incidents reported from the North-Western Province are: "cutting down of banners", "tearing down of posters", "threat and intimidation" and "clashes between party supporters". The inter-party clashes did not, however, spill over to the streets. But the overplay on violence was sufficient to make people wary of the nasty turn events could take.

The results could also be seen as providing crucial pointers to the future as they come in the latter half of Chandrika Kumaratunga's presidency. Although it may come under a cloud of suspicion, the P.A.'s victory should serve as a shot in the arm for the Government which was facing a crisis of confidence following continued impasse on the political and military fronts. However, much of the validity of the election results has now been left to be decided by the courts, with a case relating to fundamental rights being filed by a UNP supporter. If the P.A. were to disregard the genuine concerns expressed about the violations of the electoral procedures, a situation could be created in which the image it has built up as a party trying to fulfil the democratic aspirations of the people would be at stake.

For the UNP, while the impact of much of its reversals has been cushioned by suspicions on the fair conduct of elections, it would stand to suffer further if it does not recognise the political reasons for the setback at Wayamba. The P.A. rode to power in 1994 by invoking images of the "years of terror" under the UNP. There were shades of a similar campaign in Wayamba, where the P.A. put up posters portraying the UNP's chief ministerial candidate as a 'spotter' who identified suspected insurgents during the 1980s.

Violence or perceptions of violence apart, the UNP had the advantage of having held the administrative reins of the island for much of the post-Independence period. Given this, the party could in the next few months start an introspection on its showing in the North-Western Province.

SRIYANTHA WALPOLA
Anti-riot police dealing with an incident during the elections.

The most impressive performance, however, was that of the JVP, which until a decade ago was known for acts of insurgency. Conceding that it stood to gain from the disillusionment of the electorate with the two main political parties, it should be recognised that the very purpose for which the JVP came into being as a political entity was to provide a political alternative to Sri Lankans. Its gains at Wayamba are modest, but it has the potential to emerge as a player that could throw up some surprises.

Beyond the political implications, it became apparent during the elections that political parties as well as opinion-makers tend to ignore local issues in preference to "larger issues". The immediate needs and concerns of the people are yet to emerge as factors that decide governance in the Provinces. Such a situation, could lead to the questioning of the need for democratic participation at the provincial level.

To avoid such a turn of events, the two major political parties would have to embark on a provincial-level campaign, with increased attention to local issues, in the coming elections.