India's National Magazine
From the publishers of THE HINDU

Vol. 15 :: No. 25 :: Dec. 05 - 18, 1998

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COVER STORY

A surprise victory

Chief Minister Digvijay Singh leads the Congress(I) to an impressive victory in Madhya Pradesh, discounting all pre-poll predictions.

V.VENKATESAN
in Bhopal

THE results of the Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh largely came as a surprise to pollsters and political pundits. Digvijay Singh's five years as Chief Minister were not free from controversies, despite his overwhelming secular and development-oriented image and record of administrative as well as political acumen.There were some noises about corruption and non-governance as well. Some observers assumed that an anti-incumbency factor would work to the advantage of the BJP, the principal Opposition party in the State.

In the event, the Congress(I)'s position in terms of seats has not changed significantly from that after the 1993 Assembly elections. However, the wide margins of victory of most of the Congress(I) winners compared to the narrow margins of the BJP's successful candidates suggest the presence of a political undercurrent that worked in favour of the Congress(I). The party won 172 seats in the 320-member Assembly, two seats fewer than its 1993 tally. The BJP won 119 seats, two seats more than it did in 1993. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won 11 seats, the same number as in 1993. Nine independents have won one more than in 1993.

In the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, the BJP polled 45.73 per cent of the vote. In this round of Assembly elections, it polled approximately 39 per cent of the vote, which accounts for a loss of 6.73 percentage points in eight months. However, the BJP's loss has not entirely been the Congress(I)'s gain. The Congress(I) polled 39.40 per cent of the vote in the Lok Sabha elections and has polled approximately 41 per cent in the Assembly round. That is, in eight months there has been a swing of only 1.6 percentage points in favour of the party. Observers say that a significant part of the BJP's loss could be because a section of the party's committed voters did not exercise their franchise. As evidence for this they cite the drop in the voter turnout - to 56.27 per cent from 61.74 per cent - in the Lok Sabha elections.

The Congress(I)'s mandate is partly positive. The Government had taken affirmative action for the welfare of the underprivileged sections, particularly the tribal communities which constitute a substantial part of the State's electorate. Through the introduction of the panchayati raj and the Rajiv Gandhi Missions on watershed development, promotion of literacy and eradication of iodine deficiency, the Government had sought to convey the message that it was committed to ensure development through people's participation.

Digvijay Singh, however, attributes the victory to a negative vote, the people's response to the BJP's performance at the Centre. Only eight months ago the BJP had won the majority of Lok Sabha seats from the State; now the party appears to have lost the goodwill of its urban supporters, most of whom blamed the Central Government for the unprecedented rise in the prices of vegetables and other essential commodities.

Leader of the Opposition Vikram Verma, who lost in this election, said that the public mood with regard to the BJP had changed since the Lok Sabha elections because of the price rise.

The BJP was not wholly successful in halting the Congress(I)'s march in rural areas, where the price rise was not as big an issue as it was in the towns and cities. The Digvijay Singh Government, to a considerable extent, had won the confidence of the rural people through some of its policies and programmes, helping the party recover part of the ground it lost in the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress(I) planned its campaign strategy on the assumption that the issues raised in a Lok Sabha election were different from those highlighted in an Assembly election. The BJP, which perhaps anticipated a repetition of the Lok Sabha results, found, instead, a repetition of the 1993 results.

DIGVIJAY SINGH won the Ragogarh seat in Rajgarh district by a margin of over 54,161 votes - the highest margin of victory recorded in this election. Sunderlal Patwa, BJP leader and former Chief Minister, won from Bhojpur by a margin of 17,929 votes (see interview). His party colleagues were not so lucky. Former Chief Minister Kailash Joshi, who has won from the Bagli constituency in Dewas district several times, lost to Shyam Holani of the Congress(I) by 6,665 votes. In Jawad, another former Chief Minister, V.K. Saklecha, who rebelled against the BJP on the eve of the elections, lost to Ganshyam Patidar of the Congress(I) by 8,893 votes. Vikram Verma, who contested from Dhar, lost to Karansingh Pawar of the Congress(I) by 146 votes.

Yashodhararaje Scindia, daughter of senior BJP leader Vijayaraje Scindia, won from Shivpuri, defeating Hari Ballah Shukla of the Congress(I) by 7,300 votes. In Rajim, Congress(I) leader and former Chief Minister Shyama Charan Shukla defeated Dr. Neena Singh of the BJP by 23,019 votes. However, Congress(I) candidate Arun Vora, son of former Uttar Pradesh Governor Motilal Vora, lost in Durg to Hemchand Yadav of the BJP by 3,279 votes.

The BJP faced its biggest setbacks in Bhopal, where it lost three of the four seats to the Congress(I). The BJP had won all four seats in 1993. The only BJP candidate to survive the Congress(I) onslaught in the State capital was Babulal Gour, who was a Minister in the Sundarlal Patwa Cabinet. Gour won from Govindpura, defeating Karnail Singh of the Congress(I) by 10,883 votes.

The Samajwadi Party opened its account in the State by winning four seats while the Janata Dal, the Republican Party of India (Khobragade), the Ajai Bharat Party, the Janata Party and the Gondvana Gantantra Party won one each. A rebel Congress(I) candidate who won as an independent from Burhanpur, Shivkumar Singh, died after the results were declared. The BJP candidate who won from Khallari, Dr. Ramesh, died of a heart attack.

The Congress(I)'s march deprived the Left parties and activist groups of representation in the Assembly. The Chhattisgarh Mukti Morcha, which won one seat in 1993, did not win a single seat this time. Its president Janaklal Thakur lost to Domendra Bhendiya of the Congress(I) by a margin of 6,098 votes in Dondilohara (ST). Both the Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) failed to win seats. The CPI(M) had one seat and the CPI two seats in the previous Assembly. The Samajwadi Party, however, won the Pawai, Datia, Chandla and Ron seats. As the electoral contests in the State are basically bipartisan, the potential components of a third force continues to be weak.

The Congress(I)'s decision to have no truck with the BSP apparently paid off. The BSP, which maintained its 1993 vote share of around 7 per cent, proved to be a stagnant force. By winning a comfortable majority, the Congress(I) has also avoided the embarrassment of having to share the spoils with the BSP.

THE expectations of the BJP were belied when it failed to make a significant impact in the Chhattisgarh region. The issue of a Chhattisgarh State, raised by the party, apparently helped the party only in the Raipur-Bilaspur area where it won the majority of seats. In Bilaspur district the Congress(I) won only three of the 19 seats; in Raipur district, however, it won 11 of the 20 seats. The announcement of a Bilaspur railway zone evidently helped the BJP. Amar Agarwal, son of former State BJP president Lakhiram Aggarwal, won in Bilaspur defeating Anil Tah of the Congress(I).

Of the 90 seats in the Chhatisgarh region, the Congress(I) won 48 seats, the BJP 36 and the BSP three, independents two and others one. Now the Congress(I) can hope to form the government as and when Chhattisgarh becomes a separate State. In 1993, however, the Congress(I) had won 54 seats in the Chattisgarh region. A senior party leader from the region attributes the loss of some seats this time to poor selection of candidates. The decision to field Krishna Kumar Yadav, son of former Minister B.R. Yadav, from Bilaspur is said to have affected the party's chances in the entire district. B.R. Yadav quit the Digvijay Singh Cabinet, after he was indicted by the Lok Ayukta.

SANDEEP SAXENA
Digvijay Singh.

The Congress(I) did fairly well in other regions of the State as well. In Mahakaushal, which includes the Jabalpur region, the party won 45 of the 76 seats, the BJP 27, independents and others four. Congress(I) did well in most urban areas compared to its performance in 1993, it failed to get a single seat in Jabalpur, where its choice of candidates proved very unpopular.

In the Vindhya Pradesh region, which includes Sagar, the Congress(I) won 18 of the 43 seats, the BJP 15, the BSP four, and independents and others six. In the Madhya Bharat region, which includes Gwalior and Ujjain, the Congress(I) won 59 of the 99 seats, the BJP 32, the BSP five, and independents and others three. In the Old Bhopal state, the BJP won eight of the 12 seats and the Congress(I) four. The party-wise break-up of seats in the State, excluding seats from Chhattisgarh is as follows: Congress(I) 124, BJP 83, BSP eight, independents seven and others eight.

MOST people in the Congress(I) attribute the party's victory to Digvijay Singh's determined efforts to take corrective steps after the party suffered setbacks in the Lok Sabha election. Between May 25 and 31, he travelled by helicopter to 7,500 villages as part of a village contact programme and an attempt to spruce up the party's organisational network in the rural areas. He undertook a simliar outreach programme in all the major towns between June 1 and June 7.

Unlike his first term in office, it was expected that Digvijay Singh could start his second innings without being concerned about his survival in office. Congress(I) sources said that Digivijay Singh could not concentrate on administration between 1993 and 1996 because of lack of support from Prime Minister and party president P.V. Narasimha Rao and continuous dissidence in the party. There were demands to remove Digvijay Singh after the party suffered successive reverses in the last two Lok Sabha elections. Now, with Sonia Gandhi approving his leadership qualities and more than 100 Congress(I) MLAs in the new Assembly being his supporters, his position is secure. Although a few supporters of Kamal Nath, Madhavrao Scindia and Arjun Singh have been elected, they are unlikely to cause any problem to Digvijay Singh.

Digvijay Singh's former mentor Arjun Singh, who had lately turned his detractor, was also expected to endorse his election to the chief ministership. Arjun Singh's son Ajay Singh has won the Churhat seat. Even S.C. Shukla, who has been at odds with Digvijay Singh after the 1993 elections, conceded that he would be the natural choice for the chief ministership. It is learnt that S.C. Shukla covets the post of Chhattisgarh Chief Minister, when the State is created.

Many of Digvijay Singh's colleagues in the previous Cabinet have lost the elections. Prominent among them are Balendu Shukla (a supporter of Madhavrao Scindia), Ashok Rao, Noble Verma, Ramji Mahajan, Shiv Netam and Bhagwan Singh Yadav. Shiv Netam, former Union Minister Arvind Netam's brother, was indicted by the Lok Ayukta in the Malik Makbuja (Bastar forest scandal) case, being investigated by the Central Bureau of Investigation.

Although there were differences over the selection of candidates, all factions of the Congress(I) buried their differences and accepted the final list. The senior leaders refrained from encouraging rebellion. This spirit of unity contributed much to the victory of the party.