'The CTBT will make a real difference'

Veteran South Asianist MA JIALI, Research Professor at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, an autonomous institution which receives support from the State Council, is quite conversant with English. He explained, however, that since the subject was important and sensitive, he would use the services of an interpreter to present his analysis:

"SINCE this May, Sino-Indian relations have seen some troubles which we do not like to see. Let me go over the development of bilateral relations over the past ten years. Your former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi's visit to China was a milestone in the development of Sino-Indian relations. After that, they developed pretty smoothly and in a healthy way. Premier Li Peng visited India in 1991; Prime Minister Rao came to China in 1993; and President Jiang Zemin visited India in 1996.

N. RAM

"This exchange of visits at a high level strengthened the mutual understanding and friendship between India and China. There was a consensus between the two governments that India and China should develop a constructive partnership oriented towards the twenty-first century.

"However, unfortunately, we have seen a kind of reversal of the bilateral relationship this May, something we haven't seen in the past ten years. China sees the relationship in terms of good neighbours, good friends, a good partnership.

"Before the Indian nuclear tests, Defence Minister Fernandes spoke about China as a 'threat'. After the tests, Mr. Vajpayee sent letters to heads of Western countries, including Mr. Clinton, citing China as a kind of excuse for the undertaking of the tests! I believe these have hurt the feelings of the Chinese people. These events have, to a certain degree, affected the development of Sino-Indian relations.

"As far as China is concerned, we do not want to see the two countries in a confrontational status. Because both countries are big developing countries and neighbouring countries. Confrontation will not be in accordance with our mutual benefit.

"We have noted the observations of Mr. Vajpayee hoping for an improvement of bilateral relations; and also some remarks of Mr. Fernandes along these lines. There is a Chinese saying: 'We will listen to one's words and look forward to one's actions.' We look to concrete actions by India in the improvement of bilateral relations.

"The Chinese people wish to see a friendly relationship between India and China. They want Sino-Indian relations to be brought back on the right track in accordance with mutual benefit. If India wants China to be a good friend, China will certainly be a very good friend. However, if India regards China as a rival or enemy, it is possible for China to be that way.

"We have seen the observations of Opposition parties and people in India opposing the nuclear tests and also opposing the Government's policies which aim at China. We have noted the demonstrations and protests against the present policies. We assess this as a kind of healthy circle in the improvement of China-India relations.

"If bilateral relations are not conducted properly, we may see some confrontations or problems. This will not be beneficial to China and it will be harmful to the domestic interests of India, which faces the challenges of economic reform and the abolition of poverty. India should not have any enemies and its government must put the emphasis on economic development. You may find that the Beijing of 1998 is very different from the Beijing of 1988. You will see that the Government of China has put its emphasis and strength on the development of the economy.

"India has pointed to the existence of five nuclear weapon states. We are very sorry that it became the sixth. Soon after we saw the sixth, we saw the seventh. We will next see the eighth, the ninth and so on. Then the goal of an all-sided ban on nuclear tests will be far away.

"Let me point out that after undertaking nuclear tests, India has not achieved its goal. Let us look at two factors, the Pakistan factor and the China factor.

"In relation to Pakistan, in the balance of conventional military power, India is in a position of superiority, even overwhelming superiority. With Pakistan immediately demonstrating its nuclear weapon capability, India has been confronted with a greater or more direct threat to its national security.

"As for China, if it is convinced that India regards it as its major rival, it has the right to make some policies in keeping with the situation which will not be conducive to the national interests of India. Strategically, India should take this factor into account.

"Let me now elaborate on the political factors. India has been seeking the position of a big power recognised by others. It has, for example, sought permanent membership of the U.N. Security Council. This was supported by many countries. China's understanding was that it would not be an obstacle to this.

"However, after the nuclear tests, the Indian Government has to a certain extent lost its political advantage. Presently, there is a very important assessment or point of view in the international community. After the ending of the Cold War, this is the country which has broken up the process of nuclear non-proliferation. Is this a responsible country or an appropriate country to become a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council? I personally think it is a very severe, very significant loss for the Indian Government.

"India is a country with a population of nearly one billion. It holds strong economic might in the developing world. It has an important status in the process of non-alignment. The Chinese Government has taken these factors into account in the making of its policies.

"Let me now elaborate from the angle of the economy. After the nuclear tests, some developed countries such as the United States and Japan have imposed economic sanctions. This is not good. It is harmful to the development of the Indian economy, it has brought a negative influence on the development of the economy. We have read about the slogans raised in some demonstrations in India: 'We don't want bombs, we want bread! We want to see the development of the economy.' This represents the interests of the workers, the working people, and the hopes of the poor in India.

"Now about the CTBT and the NPT. I think these are very important for the development of Sino-Indian relations. Earlier we used to speak about the three 'T's in the bilateral relationship: Territory, Tibet and the Triangular relationship among China, India and Pakistan. Now there is a fourth 'T' - the CTBT and the NPT.

"We hope to see the development of Sino-Indian relations through the removal of the obstacles. We don't want to see more trouble and obstacles in the bilateral relationship.

"After the ending of the Cold War, China has adjusted its policy towards South Asia. It wishes to see a peaceful resolution of the issue of Kashmir between India and Pakistan, not an enlargement of, or further trouble in, this dispute.

"If I were an Indian, I would consider it wise for the Indian people and Government to get close to China, to improve relations with it - as opposed to pushing China away from India or putting it again on Pakistan's side.

"Now I wish to elaborate on the other 'T's. The territorial issue, the dispute in the border areas, is a longstanding one. We have had many rounds of negotiation for a resolution of this issue, which hasn't seen a final resolution. But we have seen that this process is quite positive for the bilateral relationship. There should be a forward-looking attitude to this. The feelings of the people on either side should not be hurt and there should be an attitude of mutual benefit and mutual understanding. We don't want to see a reversal of this process.

We hope the Government of India will adopt an active attitude on this issue of territory, observing tranquillity and Confidence Building Measures in the boundary areas - and not cause tension or conflict.

"As for Tibet, we hope the Government of India will abide by its promise to China. We appreciate the former policy of the Indian Government on Tibet, that is Tibet is part of China and the Government of India will not allow the Dalai Lama to conduct, on Indian soil, activities in opposition to China. We hope the Government of India will truly abide by this promise.

"We hope that the high level political leadership and the news media will not conduct too much propaganda on the issues of Tibet and Territory. Too much propaganda will make these issues more complicated and difficult. We hope wise people in India will make some effort for the healthy development of Sino-Indian relations and that India will seek the resolution of disputes and suspicions between the two countries.

"China has much restriction on these kind of remarks or publications harmful to the development of Sino-Indian relations. In Chinese newspapers and magazines, we seldom see any public remarks or articles condemning the actions of the Indian Government. Before the nuclear tests, we never saw such articles. After the tests, the feelings of the Chinese people have been greatly hurt and we have had to say something to safeguard our interests.

"However, we see a large number of (negative) articles in Indian newspapers. Before President Jiang Zemin's visit to India in 1996, I had a discussion of this with some Indian academics. I said we should promote the development of bilateral relations rather than enlarge the problems between the two countries. The answer I got from them was that 'India is a democratic country and the news media cannot be controlled.' However, this kind of publication has harmed bilateral relations, which we do not want to see.

"The news media are very important. They can be led in a certain direction. If we lead the news media into a role of positive actor in the development of Sino-Indian relations, they can do a lot of good. If we lead them into playing a negative role, they can harm the bilateral relationship.

"I think India should immediately sign the CTBT - to avert the further deterioration of relations with South Asian countries and the countries concerned and to assure everyone that it will not conduct further nuclear tests. We hope India will not weaponise its nuclear devices and will not deploy long-range missiles with nuclear warheads. This course will be conducive to India's interests. If India signs the CTBT, the international community will again show its respect.

"It is tremendously difficult for India to assume a lawful position as a nuclear weapon state. If we recognise India as a nuclear weapon state, then what about Pakistan? This is a kind of contagious influence.

"As for China's alleged assistance to Pakistan's nuclear programme (about which there have been speculative reports supposedly drawing on American intelligence): let me point out that the CIA has always been making mistakes. Let me say this to my Indian friends. Sino-Pakistan relations have always been friendly.

"During the Cold War, there was strategic cooperation. China has provided Pakistan with some assistance. But regarding the export of nuclear material, China has always been very cautious. Regarding nuclear power cooperation, China's assistance (to Pakistan) has been under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supervision. In September 1997, the State Council placed a serious limitation on nuclear exports in the form of regulations on nuclear export controls. (These ban any kind of assistance to nuclear facilities which have not accepted IAEA safeguards. In addition, nuclear exports can be undertaken only by units designated by the State Council and cannot be operated by any other units or individuals. A detailed list of nuclear export controls has been drawn up in line with international practice.) We keep our promises strictly. Since these regulations were issued, China has been very cautious towards the export of nuclear materials.

"We hope, Mr. Ram, that in your reports you will reflect the hopes of the Chinese people for the improvement of Sino-Indian relations and help counter the unhealthy tendencies. We hope that the Indian people can put some pressure on the Indian Government so that Sino-Indian relations are put on the right track as soon as possible. The CTBT will make a real difference."

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