Looking for a strategic umbrella?

Bangladesh has not ruled out further negotiations with the U.S. on a Status of Forces Agreement, but it is reconsidering the implications of such an agreement. The nuclear tests conducted by India and Pakistan are a major factor here.

HAROON HABIB
in Dhaka

A DEBATE is raging in Bangladesh on the advisability or otherwise of entering into a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the United States. Given the close relations that the Awami League Government headed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had maintained with the U.S. administration ever since it came to power in mid-1996, it seemed at one point that Bangladesh would sign the agreement unhesitatingly. It was believed that the agreement would be signed during President Bill Clinton's scheduled visit to Bangladesh later this year.

However, after mulling over the issue for months, the Sheikh Hasina Government has indicated that the prospects of its signing the agreement are "bleak". In its reckoning, Bangladesh has nothing to gain by signing SOFA in its present form; if anything, the agreement would be detrimental to the country's interests.

The agreement was proposed by the U.S. diplomat Bill Richardson, during his visit to Bangladesh earlier this year. The issue came up for discussion during the visit of the U.S. Army chief, Gen. Dennis Reimer. Although the Bangladesh Government has not yet rejected the proposal outright and shut the door on negotiations with the U.S., the fact that a process of rethink is under way is considered significant.

Sections of the media and the intelligentsia and Left-leaning politicians are critical of SOFA. They argue that its inequitous provisions will work against Bangladesh's sovereignty and dignity. The "pro-liberation" group, which supports the Awami League Government on most issues, too came out against such an agreement, as it would compromise the country's sovereignty.

PAVEL RAHMAN/AP
Communist Party supporters hold a demonstration in Dhaka in protest against the move to sign a military cooperation accord with the United States.

Responding to such criticism, the U.S. authorities clarified on June 18 that SOFA was not conceived as a military pact and that it would not facilitate the establishment of a U.S. military base in Bangladesh. They said that the agreement would lay down the procedures for "the movement of U.S,. personnel and supplies into a host nation for an exercise." It would also "clarify the legal procedures to be followed, should U.S. military personnel harm individuals or property in the host nation during an exercise," the authorities added.

SOFA would facilitate unhindered entry of U.S. troops into Bangladesh, without having to comply with even visa and passport formalities. Equipment and supplies would also be allowed to be brought in without being subjected to Customs formalities. However, according to sources in the Bangladesh Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the agreement does not provide reciprocal facilities to Bangladesh defence personnel who may be sent to the U.S. for training or for other purposes. In addition, the Bangladesh Government is not happy with the idea of granting unhindered entry to U.S. troops and weapons supplies. Apart from the fact that these provisions would require a constitutional amendment, such an arrangement would be politically risky.

WHY is the U.S. interested in such an agreement? Analysts believe that South Asia is no more a low-priority region for the U.S. administration. Clinton's scheduled visit to Bangladesh gains added significance in the light of the recent nuclear tests by India and Pakistan, which invited U.S. sanctions, contributed to a deterioration in relations between the sub-continental neighbours, and strained Sino-Indian relations. Further, U.S. economic interest in Bangladesh, particularly in the field of oil and gas exploration, has increased in recent years.

Military analysts also believe that since the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Clark and Subic Bay bases in the Philippines, Bangladesh may serve as a "half-way house" for U.S. forces in the region.

U.S. troop platoons have visited Bangladesh on several occasions in the past to conduct joint military exercises. There have been three such exercises involving the armies of the two countries in the last 10 years. Since 1982, a liaison team comprising the Pacific Command of the U.S. and the Bangladesh military has been in operation to coordinate their actions in the Indian Ocean Zone, including in times of disasters, breach of peace and or hostility in the region. More than 300 military personnel from Bangladesh have received training in the U.S. since 1979. U.S. military assistance to Bangladesh has been fairly steady since the 1980s.

V. SUDERSHAN
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

During the Gulf war in 1991, Bangladesh contributed a contingent of 2,300 troops to the anti-Iraq coalition led by the U.S. Bangladesh troops also participated alongside U.S. troops in the Haiti mission in 1994.

The two countries are signatories to a temporary treaty for conducting joint exercises; they have also signed a Memorandum of Understanding relating to the status of U.S. troops. (U.S. authorities in Dhaka said that the two countries had concluded a SOFA for a year when a cyclone struck Bangladesh in 1991; about 7,500 military personnel and civilians were involved in Operation Sea Angels, as it was called; the U.S. also provided $120 million in relief for the victims.)

Washington sees the proposed agreement as a logical extension of the MoUs signed by the two countries to determine the status of U.S. forces during joint exercises. This year, the joint exercises focussed on combating the narcotics mafia, organising disaster relief, conducting air and sea rescue operations, building schools and providing medical training and treatment.

As recently as July 6, the two countries signed an MoU to implement a U.S. Peace Corps programme under which the first batch of 25 volunteers will arrive in Bangladesh in November. They will work in primary training institutes to enhance the level of English-teaching. Sources in the U.S. Embassy in Dhaka said that before taking up their assignments, the volunteers would undergo a training course as part of which they will learn the Bengali language and get acquainted with Bangladesh's culture, history and the education system.

POLITICAL forces in Bangladesh that were opposed to the independence struggle in 1971 - the so-called "anti-liberation" group, which is an ally of religious fundamentalist forces - have called upon the people to support a Sino-U.S. security initiative for the South Asian region. The anti-liberation group argues that Bangladesh needs a "security umbrella" of a major power to defend its interests in the now-nuclearised sub-continent. Strategic affairs experts who subscribe to this theory have said that consequent to India's nuclear tests, it would be necessary for Bangladesh to enter into a military cooperation agreement with a major nuclear power "even if it meant that one of the islands in the Bay of Bengal would have to be made a base for that power." Several intellectuals have likewise argued in favour of Bangladesh taking shelter under the security umbrella of a major power like the U.S. "to counter any Indian design".

Former Prime Minister and Bangladesh National Party president Begum Khaleda Zia has accused the Sheikh Hasina Government of succumbing to pressure from India not to sign the agreement. A section of the media reported that during their meeting in New Delhi recently, Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee advised Sheikh Hasina against entering into such an agreement with the U.S.

Some analysts argue that it will not be in the interests of Bangladesh, considering its dependence on foreign aid and assistance, to antagonise the U.S. over SOFA. Notably, Dhaka has not called off negotiations on the proposal. According to government sources, "The matter is still under consideration."

WHEN Bangladesh was born in 1971, it did not have the U.S.' good wishes. The administration of President Richard Nixon had opposed the bloody creation of Bangladesh and had even despatched an aircraft carrier to the Bay of Bengal in an attempt to intimidate India, which supported the liberation movement. The U.S. State Department erred in failing to understand and appreciate the rise of secular Bengali nationhood in the 1970s in what was at that time East Pakistan. Despite this bit of history, there is no evidence of mindless anti-Americanism in Bangladesh.

The Sheikh Hasina Government also views SOFA from another perspective. In its view, Bangladesh, as an active member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, owes it to the region not to allow the entry of foreign forces "which may have profound and far-reaching consequences." The Government has elaborately, but cautiously, explained that the stationing of foreign troops or their frequent entry into the country might have an "adverse impact" within and outside the country.

Questions are being asked about the need to have a permanent foreign troop presence: apart from the staging of joint exercises and the provision of relief during cyclones and floods, what will the U.S. troops do, many people wonder. In the end, however, the fragile state of the country's economy too may be a crucial factor in the Government's calculations. The current volume of U.S. investment in Bangladesh, about $2.8 billion, is likely to zoom to $10 billion by the year 2000. Should strains show up in the relations between the two countries over the SOFA issue, these investments are certain to be affected.

The question, then, is whether Bangladesh, a small and militarily weak country, should make compromises with its sovereignty in anticipation of economic rewards. Overall, the public mood seems to point to an unwillingness to enter into such a security arrangement. One top Foreign Office official said: "We do not see any reasonable ground or need to have an umbrella agreement like the SOFA."

In addition, Bangladesh is also factoring in the views of its friends in the region, who might be displeased by such an agreement. Bangladesh has military cooperation arrangements with a number of other countries, including India, Pakistan, China, Thailand, the United Kingdom, Australia and Singapore. For now, the Sheikh Hasina Government is treading cautiously, although it has kept open the option of further negotiations with the U.S.

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