A deadlocked peace process

Talks between the Centre and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isaac-Muivah), which virtually runs a parallel government in Nagaland, have made little headway, and the ceasefire agreement between them is about to expire. The prospects for peace appear bleak.

KALYAN CHAUDHURI

THE ceasefire agreement between the Central Government and the outlawed National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isaac-Muivah) expires on July 31. But the peace initiative undertaken by the Government to find a political solution to the 50-year-old insurgency problem in Nagaland through negotiations with underground Naga leaders has made little progress. The talks between the two sides remain deadlocked; the most recent meeting, between Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's emissary and senior Supreme Court advocate Swaraj Kaushal and NSCN(I-M) leaders in Bangkok in early June, failed to make any headway.

During the meeting with Kaushal, NSCN(I-M) general secretary Thuingaleng Muivah and president Isaac Chishi Swu demanded political discussions without any conditions and in the Prime Minister's presence to be held outside India. Underground sources said that the rebel leaders had told the emissary that if the Prime Minister participated in the talks, the NSCN(I-M) would give up its demand that the peace talks be held under United Nations supervision. Evidently, this was unacceptable to the Prime Minister's Office.

Kaushal's brief was to try to evolve a mutually beneficial and consensual solution to the insurgency problem within the framework of the Constitution. Some of the demands that the NSCN(I-M) placed before Kaushal could not be accommodated within the constitutional framework. For instance, the NSCN(I-M) wanted Nagaland to be given the status of a protectorate, much like the status that Bhutan has. NSCN(I-M) vice-chairman K. Yanthum said recently from his hideout in London that his organisation would plead for the grant of such status for Nagaland.

Kaushal sought to secure the Naga leaders' response to the idea of working out an arrangement under which the Congress(I) Chief Minister of Nagaland, S.C. Jamir, would step down and make way for a leader of the rebels' choice. He cited the example of Mizoram where Chief Minister Lal Thanhawla at one point stepped down to make way for Laldenga, president of the banned Mizo National Front (MNF). But Muivah is reported to have rejected the proposal, saying that Mizoram was not Nagaland and the Naga people were not like the Mizos. According to Muivah, Laldenga accepted the arrangement because it came at a time when the MNF leader was thinking of giving up the underground movement and giving himself up to the authorities. The NSCN(I-M), on the other hand, was determined to continue its fight for "a sovereign Nagaland", he said.

According to NSCN(I-M) sources in Kohima, Muivah told Kaushal categorically that only direct talks with the Prime Minister could revive the peace process. Muivah is reported to have refused to discuss political matters with Kaushal since, in his view, the Government of India had backed out of many previous agreements. This time too, he said, New Delhi was backtracking on its commitment made to the Nagas.

It is claimed that when the ceasefire agreement was worked out in May, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition Government agreed that the ceasefire would cover all the areas inhabited by the Naga people, not just Nagaland. Besides this, according to the NSCN(I-M), New Delhi made three commitments: that the peace talks would be unconditional, that they would he held at the level of the Prime Minister, and that they would take place at a venue outside India. According to Muivah, the Government violated the agreement on all counts. It had conducted Army operation in areas inhabited by the Naga people in Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh and refused to hold unconditional peace talks at the Prime Minister's level, he said.

The NSCN(I-M) is the main underground organisation in Nagaland and was the first to respond to the proposal for talks made by the Congress(I) Government headed by Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao some years ago. Several rounds of talks were held between the Indian Government and guerilla leaders when the United Front was in power. These resulted in the declaration of a ceasefire with the NSCN(I-M) on July 25, 1997. Since then the ceasefire has been extended several times; the latest agreement, for a three-month extension, was made effective from May 1 this year.

UNDERGROUND sources in Dimapur feel that even if the NSCN(I-M) comes to an understanding with the Vajpayee Government, it will not mean an end to the insurgency. Two other major underground organisations, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang) and the Naga National Council (NNC), have set themselves against any kind of peace proposal from the Centre. The NSCN(K), which is not a party to the ceasefire agreement, has declared that its "offensive against the Indian occupation force in Nagaland would continue." Since May 1, its guerillas have killed 21 Army personnel.

Although the NSCN(K) is not a party to the ceasefire, the security forces had avoided a confrontation with the Khaplang group in order to give the ceasefire a chance. But when the NSCN(K) resorted to unprovoked attacks on Army personnel, the Army resumed active operations against it. Analysts believe that the NSCN(K)'s sudden resort to violence after lying low for some time may be intended to subvert the peace talks. Chief Minister Jamir appealed to the NSCN(K) leadership to accept the Government's offer for unconditional talks. The Centre said it was "unfortunate" that there had been no "favourable response" from the NSCN(K) to the ceasefire offer. Action against the group would, therefore, continue, a State Government spokesman said.

SHANKER CHAKRAVARTY
Chief Minister S.C. Jamir.

Underground leaders of the NSCN(I-M) allege that some leaders in the State who have a vested political interest are using the NSCN(K) to target the security forces so as to disrupt the peace process initiated by New Delhi. They claim that the Centre is aware of this but is unable to do anything about it. They allege that NSCN(K) leader S.S. Khaplang, who belongs to the Hemi Naga community from Myanmar, operates from bases close to the India-Myanmar border and that he has links with at least one senior political leader in the State.

THE mood among the Naga people is in favour of securing an extension of the ceasefire; they would also like to see peace talks between the Government and the NSCN(I-M) continue. But they believe that no solution is possible without the involvement of the other factions of the NSCN. In the estimation of the Naga people, a peace agreement with the NSCN(I-M) can at best bring about a piecemeal solution to the problem. Jamir too believes that without the involvement of all the insurgent groups in the peace talks, a permanent solution cannot be found.

Former Chief Minister Vizol told Frontline that the Centre should declare a "comprehensive and blanket " ceasefire and include the NSCN(K) and the NNC in the agreement. He said that although the level of violence had come down during the ceasefire period, violence continued in some places. Unless the other two NSCN factions were included in the ceasefire agreement, no peaceful solution to the problem was possible, he said.

A prominent leader in Imphal said that a solution to the Naga insurgency problem hinged on how the NSCN(I-M) presented its demands during the negotiations. The group's demand for a "sovereign Nagaland" has been rejected by the Centre. Union Home Ministry officials have made it clear to the NSCN(I-M) leadership that secession from India would not be allowed at any cost.

The NSCN(I-M)'s insistence on including in the discussions all areas inhabited by the Naga people has given rise to other problems. The Centre is unwilling to discuss such areas outside Nagaland because that would invite objections from neighbouring Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. The Manipur Government is opposed to areas within the State's boundary coming under the ambit of the negotiations process. The major constituent of the coalition ruling the State, the Manipur State Congress (MSC), has offered support to the BJP-led Government at the Centre on condition that the Prime Minister announce on the floor of Parliament that Manipur's territorial boundary would not be altered.

Underground sources have hinted that both Isaac and Muivah may renounce insurgency and enter mainstream politics if certain concessions - such as territorial adjustments to include within the geographical area of Nagaland the areas inhabited by the Naga people in Manipur's Ukhrul district and the grant of special constitutional provisions to the State - are made. Most of the top NSCN(I-M) leaders, including Muivah, K.K. Hurrey, Atem and R.H. Raising, are from Ukhrul district.

The NSCN(I-M) virtually runs a parallel government in Nagaland, and is therefore willing to consider a peace agreement only on its terms. Addressing a gathering of Naga rebels on the occasion of the 19th "republic day" of the government of the "People's Republic of Nagaland" somewhere near the Nagaland-Manipur border on March 21, Isaac said that if negotiations with the Government of India did not yield a solution, the fight for a "sovereign Nagaland" would continue. "Thousands of Nagas have shed their blood for the redemption of Nagalim (Naga identity) and thousands more are queueing up to sacrifice their lives for the nation," he said.

Isaac and Muivah criticised the Indian Government for its "shameless imposition" of "bogus elections" on "the unwilling Naga people" in February. They asserted that such "forced elections" were "absolutely unacceptable now and shall be so for all time too come."

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