Life at the edge

The formation of the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha spurs efforts to build a secular front that will be ready to take over should the Vajpayee Government collapse under pressure from the BJP's disparate allies.

VENKITESH RAMAKRISHNAN
in New Delhi

PLAYERS on the political stage are frequently required to wear a mask in order to present a stoic front even in the face of overwhelming and all-round adversity. Leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party, buffeted by a string of adversities in the 100-plus days that the Hindutva party has headed a coalition Government at the Centre, would seem to don just such a mask, but it is an increasingly transparent camouflage. In their estimation, perhaps, the show - of being able to bear the many slings and arrows of outrageous fortune with Hamletian fortitude - must go on. But even among the prompters who provide the political cues from the wings, the realisation seems to have dawned that, the players having strutted and fretted their hour on the stage, the time for the final curtain is near at hand.

Addressing newspersons at the end of a meeting of the Coordination Committee of the BJP and its allies in New Delhi on June 27, senior BJP leader Jaswant Singh said: "There is no threat to the Government." Few, even among the activists of the other constituents of the Hindutva combine, took his statement at its face value. For the meeting had been virtually boycotted by three of the BJP's alliance partners from Tamil Nadu whose support is crucial for the survival of the Government: the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), whose general secretary, the combative Jayalalitha had only days earlier sounded a "friendly warning" to the BJP; the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK); and the Tamil Nadu Rajiv Congress (TRC). In fact, soon it was announced that Jaswant Singh, who is Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission besides being political firefighter par excellence for the BJP, would be off to Chennai yet again on a mission to mollify Jayalalitha.

The leader of a fourth ally, Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamul Congress, who too has directed a fair dose of "friendly fire" at the BJP, also did not make it to the meeting, ostensibly having missed her flight to Delhi.

And, worse for the BJP, barely 100 days after a decidedly wobbly take-off, barely three months into what has proved to be a most turbulent ride, word is going around that the cockpit crew is preparing for a crashlanding that seems inevitable.

According to Hindutva combine workers in Uttar Pradesh, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the parent organisation of the Parivar of which the BJP is a constituent, has sent instructions to its units in northern India asking its cadre to be prepared for general elections anytime after October 1998. Some of the units received the communication on the very day that the Coordination Committee met in Delhi and Jaswant Singh expressed supreme confidence in the survival of the government.

SANDEEP SAXENA
Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav and Rashtriya Janata Dal president Laloo Prasad Yadav in New Delhi on June 24, when they announced the formation of the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha. At right is Samajwadi Party general secretary Amar Singh. Morcha leaders hope that the political realignments that are taking shape will trigger their own set of dynamics that will lead to the collapse of the Vajpayee Government.

A senior Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) leader from Uttar Pradesh told Frontline that the RSS message was a directive to the cadre to be prepared for the worst-case scenario. "We are still trying," the leader said, "to solve the differences with the AIADMK and we hope it will work. But we also know that we cannot go on compromising and will have to take a position sooner or later. In such a situation, we should not be caught unawares if something happens. Which is why the missive was sent out."

The primary factor that underlies this apprehension within the BJP and the rest of the Hindutva combine is the uncertainty over Jayalalitha's continued support. Leaders of the combine say that they are aware that Jayalalitha has been in constant touch with sections of the Congress(I) ever since the Vajpayee Government took office. In their perception, the discussions between the Congress(I) and the AIADMK might take a critical turn any moment now.

BUT, by all indications, this is not the only factor that was behind the RSS missive. The coming together of the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav and the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Laloo Prasad Yadav to form the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha (National Democratic Front, or NDF), as well as former Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar's exhortation to the Congress(I) to bring down the Vajpayee Government, also heightened worries in the Hindutva combine, which was already besieged by unrelenting pressure from some of its regional allies. The warm responses of some constituents of the United Front (U.F.), including the Left parties, and the Congress(I), to the formation of the NDF too weighed on the minds of leaders of the Hindutva combine. Just as important, the BJP nurses serious doubts about how long it can count on the support of some of its other allies - such as the Biju Janata Dal, the Lok Shakti and the Samata Party - which are exhibiting symptoms of restiveness over the coalition Government's record so far.

Many BJP leaders see the formation of the NDF as a clever political ploy; they believe that the NDF can act as a catalyst that will help the U.F. and the Congress(I) get over their differences and join hands. In their reckoning, even if the U.F. and the Congress(I) do not come together as part of a coalition arrangement, they may both agree to support a mutually acceptable third entity, such as the NDF. The S.P. was, after all, one of the U.F. constituents until the NDF was born; and the RJD was a key constituent of the alliances that were formed by the Congress(I) ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

Rajnath Singh, president of the Uttar Pradesh unit of the BJP, said: "If the U.F. constituents and the Congress(I) are committed to political principles, they should have seen the formation of the NDF as an act of betrayal. But that is not the case. Even Janata Dal leader and former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda has welcomed the new alliance, despite the fact that both Mulayam Singh and Laloo Prasad have declared that the Congress(I) should be given the first option to form a non-BJP government. Obviously, they are not bothered about principles but want to prop up the new political entity that will help them rally forces against the BJP."

Ever since March, the BJP leadership, as part of its strategy for the survival of the Vajpayee Government, has sought to accentuate the differences between the U.F. and the Congress(I) to prevent their coming together on an anti-BJP platform. The manner in which the Congress(I) used the Jain Commission's Interim Report on the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi to pull down the U.F. Government headed by I.K. Gujral was used as ammunition in this campaign. Clearly, the NDF's formation has upset the BJP's applecart even further.

ASHOK VAHIE
Vajpayee and Advani with Congress(I) leaders (from left) Manmohan Singh, Arjun Singh, Rajesh Pilot and Ahmed Patel, who presented a memorandum on the law and order situation in Doda, in New Delhi on June 29.

Reports that NDF leaders have held consultations with some constituents in the BJP-led coalition have caused concern in the Hindutva party. According to sources in the S.P. and the RJD, the formation of the NDF was preceded by discussions with the AIADMK and sections of the BJD, the Samata Party and the Lok Shakti. These sources add that sections of the BJD and the Samata Party are disenchanted with the Vajpayee Government's record in office as well as the leadership of their respective parties and are ready to join hands with the NDF.

The turmoil in the BJD over the cross-voting in the recent Rajya Sabha elections and the expressions of resentment among a group of Samata Party MPs against the leadership of Defence Minister George Fernandes and Railway Minister Nitish Kumar lend credence to such reports. According to NDF sources, five of the nine BJD MPs and seven of the 12 Samata Party MPs are ready to leave the BJP alliance. Buta Singh, who was forced to resign from the Vajpayee Ministry under pressure from Jayalalitha, has joined forces with the NDF. In addition, Laloo Prasad is believed to have held talks with Lok Shakti leader Ramakrishna Hegde, with whom he has had a good rapport since their days in the Janata Dal.

The NDF leadership hopes that the realignment of political forces that is taking shape will trigger its own set of dynamics that will lead to the collapse of the Vajpayee Government and the formation of a broad anti-BJP grouping at the Centre. S.P. president Mulayam Singh Yadav told Frontline that in its 100 days in office, the Vajpayee Government had proved that the BJP is incapable of providing good governance. "There is growing realisation that the BJP is pushing a communal agenda, which is detrimental to the country. Laloo Prasad and I are only channelling this realisation and giving it political shape."

HOWEVER, the NDF leadership is not sure just how and when these efforts will crystallise. According to NDF leaders, all the objective political factors for bringing down the Vajpayee Government are in place, with the AIADMK, the PMK, the TRC and sections of the BJD and the Samata Party ready to walk out of the ruling coalition. However, certain subjective factors still stand in the way of the fruition of the process. Most of these relate to doubts among Congress(I) leaders, especially its president Sonia Gandhi, about the efficacy of the proposed alternative to the Vajpayee Government and the impact that the formation of a broad non-BJP grouping will have on her own authority over the party.

The Congress(I) is sceptical of such a new arrangement at two levels: the political and the personal. A senior member of the Congress(I) Working Committee (CWC) member confided that the party was not sure that with allies like the AIADMK, which is driving a hard bargain with the BJP to force the Hindutva party to concede its unreasonable demand for the dismissal of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu, it would be able to perform better than the Vajpayee Government. "If we come to power with the AIADMK's support, that party may create the very same problems it is causing the Vajpayee Government," the CWC member said.

At a personal level too, Sonia Gandhi is believed to be uncomfortable about taking the support of Jayalalitha, who had criticised Sonia Gandhi's entry into politics and had even stated that the people of India would not accept "a foreigner" as their leader. Although Jayalalitha subsequently sought to make amends by praising former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, the distrust persists, the CWC member said.

RAJEEV BHATT
CPI(M) general secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet. The Congress(I) is keen to gauge the extent to which the Left parties will go to support a non-BJP government headed by it.

Some Congress(I) leaders are of the view that if the proposed alternative to the Vajpayee Government fails to perform creditably, it will only strengthen the BJP. CWC members such as Arjun Singh and A.K. Antony argued that for the Congress(I) to participate as one of many disparate entities in a secular alliance at this juncture would not serve its long-term agenda, which is to revive the organisation at a national level. Sources close to Arjun Singh said that he believed that running a government with regional parties such as the S.P. and the RJD would not advance the Congress(I)'s aim of national revival.

Arjun Singh is reported to have argued at recent meetings of party leaders that the revival of the Congress(I) in the politically pivotal States of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar is central to its rejuvenation at the national level, and that this purpose would not be well served by entering into alliances with the S.P. and the RJD, which have a strong base in this region. In his opinion, teaming up with these parties would only help them consolidate their strengths.

An MP from Madhya Pradesh who is considered close to Arjun Singh told Frontline: "The mass base of the S.P. and the RJD was once with the Congress(I). We have to win that back. This cannot be done by joining hands with the very same parties. We have a better chance of achieving our objective by sitting in the Opposition and fighting consistently against the BJP and these forces."

Sources in the Congress(I) say that although Sonia Gandhi herself is personally inclined towards this view, she is unable to pursue it vigorously because a majority of the CWC members, including leaders such as Sharad Pawar, Manmohan Singh, R.K. Dhawan and Ghulam Nabi Azad, wants the Vajpayee Government to be brought down at the earliest. In fact, Pawar has been in constant touch with Jayalalitha since the early days of the Vajpayee Government.

As part of another initiative, former Finance Minister Manmohan Singh held talks with leaders of Left parties such as Somnath Chatterjee and Jyoti Basu. These discussions were intended to gauge the extent to which the Left would go to support the Congress(I). According to Congress(I) sources, the Left leaders were ready even to support a Congress(I)-led government. A Youth Congress(I) office-bearer told Frontline: "These discussions have given Manmohan Singh the strength to advance his case for forming a non-BJP government."

MOHAMMED YOUSUF
On a tour of Andhra Pradesh, Congress(I) president Sonia Gandhi with relatives of cotton farmers who committed suicide, in Medak district. Torn by conflicts and doubts, the Congress(I) is tentative about taking the lead in bringing down the Vajpayee Government and heading a secular formation.

HOWEVER, the Sonia Gandhi camp is also apprehensive that a stint in government in the company of parties such as the S.P. and the RJD may erode the Congress(I) president's command over her party. Leaders such as Pawar and Sitaram Kesri have better equations with the leaders of the S.P. and the RJD and, according to an apolitical associate of Sonia Gandhi, they might use the coalition partners in a prospective government to reduce the influence of the Sonia Gandhi camp. That Sonia Gandhi's leadership is already being indirectly challenged, as was made clear by the defeat of her nominee Ram Pradhan in the Rajya Sabha biennial elections in Maharashtra, has aggravated this worry.

The NDF leadership's response to the Congress(I)'s doubts about the administrative efficacy of the proposed alternative to the Vajpayee Government has not satisfied Sonia Gandhi loyalists. NDF leaders are reported to have told the Congress(I) that if the latter "does not want to take the blame for bad governance, the NDF is ready to take the flak and lead the proposed alternative." Mulayam Singh's statement that if the Congress(I) is unwilling to head a non-BJP government it should support the NDF in this endeavour is significant in this context. However, the Sonia Gandhi camp reckons that even this is not a satisfactory arrangement.

Torn by conflicts and doubts, the Congress(I) has so far failed to make a commitment to bringing down the Vajpayee Government. A party statement issued after the CWC meeting of June 23, a day after Chandra Shekhar exhorted the Congress(I) to bring down the Vajpayee Government and form an alternative, reflected the leadership's dilemma. Briefing the media after the meeting, Arjun Singh merely said: "The suggestions that an alternative government be formed at the Centre have been noted; the consolidation of all secular forces remains an important issue for us." He added that the Congress(I) would keep a close watch on the situation, but could not be asked to respond to a situation that was still in the realm of conjecture. The closest that Arjun Singh came to making some kind of a commitment was when he said: "In case the Government collapses under its own weight, the Congress(I) will definitely discharge its responsibility."

However, given the pace of consolidation of anti-BJP forces in the Opposition as well as among some constituents of the BJP-led front, the Congress(I) cannot afford to prevaricate for long. Sonia Gandhi's statements during her tour of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka in the last fortnight seemed to indicate that the Congress(I) had come around to this realisation. Talking to party workers in Humnabad in Karnataka on June 28, Sonia Gandhi ruled out the possibility of the Congress(I) supporting any front to come to power, and added that once an alternative to the Vajpayee Government emerges, the Congress(I) would lead it. With this she appears to have made it clear that the NDF proposal that it be allowed to lead the prospective alternative is unacceptable. Political observers see a subtle change towards a pro-active policy in this declaration as compared to the irresolute nature of the statement after the June 23 CWC meeting.

The most important question now is when and how Sonia Gandhi and other leaders in the Congress(I) will get over their evident diffidence about pulling down the Vajpayee Government and pursue the anti-BJP line to its logical conclusion. For now, there are no clear indications of the timing and the method. A section of the Congress(I) leadership says that Sonia Gandhi would not like to do anything to dislodge the Government until the Finance Bill is passed "so that the country's economy has some direction, even if it is faulty and limited." But sources close to the AIADMK are of the view that the Finance Bill will not be passed by the Vajpayee Government.

As for the Hindutva combine leadership, it seems to be convinced that irrespective of whether the Government survives the Budget session of Parliament and whether an alternative government is formed, elections are inevitable around October.

Table of Contents

Home | The Hindu | Business Line | Sportstar