Raising the stakes

Pakistan believes that the West will pressure India on Kashmir in the days ahead; it wants to make full use of the opportunity offered by the nuclear tests to internationalise the issue.

AMIT BARUAH
in Islamabad

FOR the first time in many years, Pakistan feels that is has the whip-hand on Kashmir. Emboldened by the position taken by the United States-led Western coalition on the need for a settlement of the Kashmir dispute, Pakistan is on a 'high'.

In fact, Islamabad have stated that it was interested in a bilateral dialogue with India only on account of the international community. On its own, Pakistan saw no need for a bilateral dialogue with India given the experience of the past 50 years. Such a clear-cut formulation was missing from Islamabad's previous policy formulations.

Senior Pakistani Ministers have gone on record to state that a new 'opportunity' has become available to Islamabad, which should be exploited to the hilt. Pakistan believes that the West will pressure India on Kashmir in the days ahead for being the leading 'bad boy' in disrupting U.S. President Bill Clinton's carefully manicured non-proliferation regime.

Out of the blue, on June 11, the Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, Satish Chandra, was informed by Foreign Secretary Shamshad Ahmed that Islamabad was willing to resume negotiations with India on the "basis of the agreement reached on June 23, 1997" between the two countries. A Pakistan Foreign Office statement said: "Pakistan has proposed that in view of the current situation, the two sides should address, on a priority basis, the issues of peace and security and Jammu & Kashmir in the resumed talks. Pakistan has also proposed that under the item pertaining to peace and security, special and urgent attention may be given to arriving at mutually agreed measures for avoidance of conflict as well as promotion of nuclear and conventional restraint and stabilisation measures."

It is difficult not to link Pakistan's 'offer' to resume talks to the G-8 meeting in London the next day. Islamabad, which is currying favour with the international community despite its nuclear tests, believes that international, third-party mediation of any kind is the only viable policy option on the Kashmir issue.

Pakistan has now gone back to the June 23 agreement as the 'basis' for talks with India. It has forgotten the efforts made in Edinburgh (October 1997) and Dhaka (January 1998) by the two countries to evolve a mutually-agreed mechanism to discuss the Kashmir issue following a dispute on the interpretation of the June 23 agreement. Islamabad, which had given up its insistence on a Working Group on Kashmir, has now reverted to that position. The January 15 Dhaka proposals, presented to break the deadlock since the third round of resumed Foreign Secretary-level talks in September 1997, have been rejected by Pakistan after a time-gap of four months.

SHANKER CHAKRAVARTY
Indian Foreign Secretary K. Raghunath (left) with his Pakistani counterpart Shamshad Ahmed during their talks in New Delhi in September 1997. For the first time in years, Pakistan now feels it has the whip-hand on Kashmir.

Interestingly, Pakistan had proposed on June 11 that the Foreign Secretary-level talks be resumed after the two Prime Ministers met on the sidelines of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in Colombo, now expected to be held in July. Within 24 hours, India invited Pakistan's Foreign Secretary to New Delhi, at the head of an official delegation, for talks on June 22. While the Indian statement made a reference to the June 23, 1997 agreement, the talks were offered to Pakistan on the 'basis' of the January 1998 Dhaka proposals.

A couple of hours later, Islamabad accused New Delhi of indulging in 'traditional gimmickry' and sabotaging the dialogue process. In a counter-proposal, an invitation was extended to the Indian Foreign Secretary to come for talks to Islamabad on June 20.

An official statement said:

"Instead of responding positively to this offer of talks on the agreed basis, India has asked for resumption of talks on the basis of the proposals made by New Delhi in January 1998. These proposals were not acceptable to Pakistan as a working basis for resumption of talks as these were totally unrealistic and reflected India's consistently negative and non-serious approach towards (the) dialogue.

"By ignoring the agreed basis for talks and calling for resumption of dialogue on the basis of its own proposals India has in effect once again sabotaged the dialogue process. It may be recalled that the P-5 in their meeting in Geneva last week as well as the Security Council have urged resumption of dialogue for addressing the root cause of tension in South Asia. The Secretary-General of the U.N. is also actively engaged in promoting the dialogue process. All these efforts are now being negated by India with her obstructionist policies in defiance of the will of the international community.

"This yet again highlights that bilaterally the dialogue will remain deadlocked or non-productive. It forcefully underscores the imperative of the engagement of the international community with this process in some form... good offices, mediation or initiatives by the U.N. Secretary-General. Pakistan has, therefore, welcomed the proposed visit of the Secretary-General's special envoy to the region which signifies the urgent need for finding a solution to the Jammu & Kashmir dispute..."

Recent Pakistani statements have left nothing to the imagination. Pakistan is talking to India because of the international community, 50 years of bilateral dialogue between the two countries has not yielded results, so it is futile to continue the dialogue process - so goes the argument.

Even when I.K. Gujral was Prime Minister in the 'heady' days of engagement, Pakistan played the international card by accusing India of resiling from the June 23 agreement. As Islamabad is aware, both countries had agreed to a formulation that would allow for "equally valid" dual interpretations.

MUZAMMIL PASHA / REUTERS
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Islamabad believes that international, third-party mediation is the only viable policy option on the Kashmir issue.

Given the present situation, it would be unrealistic to expect Pakistan to hold a serious bilateral dialogue with India. All the "dialogue" noises are aimed at the West, which continues to urge both countries to resolve their differences bilaterally.

On the other hand, Pakistan has raised to a new level its "international pitch" on Kashmir while urging the West effective international engagement. In a comment on the G-8 meeting in London, Pakistan said: "The G-8 should have recognised that for 50 years the bilateral dialogue between Pakistan and India has produced no results. To prescribe more of the same amounts to an abnegation of responsibilities under the U.N. Charter and international law. Effective international engagement is a sine qua non for initiating and sustaining a meaningful process of peace and rapprochement in South Asia."

It could well be that Pakistan has pitched too high on Kashmir. There can be little quarrel that issues of peace and security, including confidence-building measures, are priority areas for discussion in view of the nuclearisation of the sub-continent. Kashmir may be a priority for Pakistan (as it has always been), but it cannot be put on a par with peace and security in South Asia. The West, which is adept at playing the India-Pakistan game, cannot but be aware that while it can pressure India on Kashmir, New Delhi is not about to alter its position on Kashmir in any way. India may be vulnerable on Kashmir on account of it nuclear tests, but any change in its position can be safely ruled out.

It is this Kashmir-is-an-integral-part-of-India formulation that irritates Pakistan. But there is little that Islamabad can do about it. For 50 years it has tried and failed. The most it can do is to rail against India. More of the same can be expected.

However, if the two countries are to make South Asia "nuclear safe", then a series of confidence-building measures on the security front are called for. Both countries should eschew the "competitive diplomacy" that has been evident in the past few days and get down to address all the issues between them seriously. For such a thing to happen, Pakistan must examine its "internationalisation or nothing" approach to a dialogue with India.

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