Diplomatic fallout

World leaders were quick to condemn Pakistan for not heeding their pleas and going ahead with its nuclear tests. The international community, however, holds New Delhi responsible for kick-starting a nuclear and missile race in South Asia.

JOHN CHERIAN

THE nuclear tests conducted by Pakistan have, as expected, brought the escalating arms race in the Indian subcontinent into even sharper international focus.

After Pakistan tested its nuclear devices, the United Nations Security Council strongly deplored the tests and called on India and Pakistan "to stop all nuclear testing and related nuclear activities immediately... freeze their nuclear weapons development programme." U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan called on India and Pakistan to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and pledge that they would not use nuclear weapons on each other.

Jacques Santer, President of the European Community (E.U.), who termed Pakistan's tests as a "threat to the region's security architecture," said that the tests would adversely affect the E.U.'s relations with Pakistan.

Meanwhile, Pakistan's nuclear tests do not appear to have deflected the attention of the international community from India. Kashmir no longer appears to be on the diplomatic back-burner. While reacting to Islamabad's second round of testing, Kofi Annan, who termed Pakistan's action as "a further dangerous and senseless escalation of tension" that could lead to a "nuclear arms race with incalculable consequences," repeated his offer to mediate on Kashmir. (Pakistan has always maintained that Kashmir is the core issue between the two countries.) He also had a 15-minute telephonic conversation with Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee. It is believed that during the course of his discussion with Vajpayee, Annan offered third-party mediation to resolve all the outstanding disputes between India and Pakistan. According to reports, the U.N. Security Council is convening a meeting of its five permanent members to try and persuade Islamabad and New Delhi to resume a dialogue on all the contentious issues, including Kashmir.

KYODO / AP
Hiroshima citizens during a sit-in at Peace Memorial Park against Pakistan's nuclear tests. The first atomic bomb was dropped on this Japanese city in 1945.

According to a statement issued by the External Affairs Ministry, Vajpayee told Annan that New Delhi was fully committed to friendly relations with all its neighbours and that it was prepared to discuss with Pakistan, and other nations, various nuclear-related issues, including the "no first use" of nuclear weapons. However, according to the External Affairs Ministry, Vajpayee categorically told the U.N. Secretary-General that all the outstanding issues that need solutions could only be discussed bilaterally, and that "there is no role for any third party in this dialogue." He, however, told Annan that India was not averse to accepting an U.N. role on nuclear issues. He is also believed to have told Annan that India's legitimate security concerns beyond South Asia needs to be recognised by the world body.

New Delhi's unhappiness over the U.N. Security Council's reaction to Pakistan's tests was reflected in a statement issued by the External Affairs Ministry on May 31. The Ministry's statement objected to the "unwarranted and misleading references to India". It expressed India's "astonishment" at the Security Council's statement that urged against conducting any more tests. (The Security Council had asked India and Pakistan to declare a moratorium on testing and experimenting on delivery systems.) The External Affairs Ministry's statement called on the international community in general and the nuclear weapon states in particular to join India to start early negotiations for a convention on nuclear weapons so that "the weapons could be dealt with in a non-discriminatory framework as the other two weapons of mass destruction had been - through the Biological Weapons Convention and the Chemical Weapons Convention."

LIKE India, Pakistan too has been unable to garner any overt support for its tests, although its argument of having been forced to react to India's actions appears to have touched a sympathetic chord. Russia and France condemned Pakistan's nuclear tests but, as expected, were not in the forefront of those who argued for immediate punitive sanctions. (France expects to sell a fleet of Mirage-2000s to Pakistan in the light of the fact that the United States has indefinitely postponed its offer of F-16s to Pakistan.)

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that it "regretted" the Pakistani action and said that it was "deeply concerned and was uneasy about the arms race in South Asia." Unlike India, Pakistan had lobbied with friendly governments, including China, Iran and Saudi Arabia, before conducting the tests. Islamabad had also tried to gain the support of the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC). Although the OIC expressed its support for Islamabad in the wake of the Indian tests, it was critical of Pakistan's tests.

Australia's Foreign Ministry termed Pakistan's tests as nothing but an "I-can-do-better-than-you" game, which "has compounded the outrage in what has become a dangerous game."

Japan used the same language it used against India in condemning Pakistan's tests. It suspended its aid package to Islamabad, recalled its Ambassador for consultations and is expected to act in tandem with the U.S. in blocking much-needed International Monetary Fund-World Bank funding for Pakistan.

Although Sri Lanka did not make a statement, officials in Colombo said that their country understood "Islamabad's compulsions".

MEANWHILE, the post-bomb euphoria of the Bharatiya Janata Party and its friends in India appears to be waning rapidly. An External Affairs Ministry official said: "Euphoria in this country gets dissipated quickly and conducting post-mortems is a national pastime."

After Pakistan exploded six nuclear devices and claimed to have more than evened its score with India, the Vajpayee Government is unwittingly projecting an impression that it had been unprepared for the chain reaction that followed the Pokhran nuclear tests. Diplomatically, India has never been as isolated as it is now. The External Affairs Ministry, which had not been kept in the picture before the tests were conducted, is now expected to douse the fire. Ministry officials privately admit that they could have handled the diplomatic fallout better had the Narasimha Rao Government gone ahead with the tests in 1995 before the CTBT came up for signing.

Top Clinton administration officials claimed that senior Indian officials, including Foreign Secretary K. Raghunath during his visit to Washington in early May, misled them deliberately. Raghunath had reportedly assured senior Clinton administration officials that there would be "a continuity of security policies". This was interpreted as an assurance that there would be no nuclear testing, at least not until President Bill Clinton's visit to India in September this year. However, a senior Indian official who accompanied the Foreign Secretary and was present during the talks denied that any such assurance was given.

It is, however, obvious that the Clinton administration feels badly let down by New Delhi. When Clinton first assumed the Presidency in 1992, he had pledged to "cap, roll back and eliminate" the nuclear and missile arsenals in South Asia. Now, a nuclear and missile race is on in earnest in South Asia and the Clinton administration and the international community hold New Delhi responsible for kick-starting it. Although Washington urged both Islamabad and New Delhi to halt immediately their efforts to weaponise their nuclear capabilities, it blamed New Delhi for forcing Pakistan to test nuclear devices.

The 'China' card, which Vajpayee played to justify the Indian tests, has virtually no takers. In fact, in the light of the recent events, Washington and Beijing seem to be coordinating their moves in the subcontinent. An indication of this is the letter that Chinese President Jiang Zemin wrote to the Pakistan Government just days before Pakistan tested its nuclear weapons, urging Islamabad against conducting a nuclear test. China did not cast its veto when the U.N. Security Council condemned Pakistan's nuclear tests. Chinese officials have denied that they had ever offered any type of nuclear umbrella or guarantee to Pakistan.

INDIA finds itself in splendid isolation even in South Asia. President K.R. Narayanan was greeted by placard-waving protesters in Kathmandu during his official visit to Nepal. They were protesting against the nuclear tests. Even Bhutan has not come out with a pro-forma statement supporting the Indian stance. The Sri Lankan Government issued a statement underlining the dangers of a missile and nuclear race in the Indian subcontinent. Myanmar, despite the unsubstantiated statements of Defence Minister George Fernandes accusing Yangon of having a military nexus with Beijing, has maintained silence. However, privately, the Government there, like all other governments in the region, is blaming New Delhi for igniting a new and dangerous arms race in the region. Myanmar is, however, keen on continuing its close links with India.

According to a diplomat from a country which is part of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), the perception among the diplomatic community is that the BJP-led Government is capable of doing exactly what its leaders threaten to do. The general feeling among diplomats is that the Pakistani tests were precipitated by the tests carried out by India. The ASEAN Regional Forum formalised a statement to be read out by the chairperson of the group, the Philippines, which was strongly critical of India's decision to conduct nuclear tests. (The statement was drafted before Pakistan conducted its tests.)

The European Union (E.U.) officially resolved to "work for a delay" in the consideration of loans to India from the World Bank and other international institutions. In a statement, the E.U. condemned the tests conducted by India and called on it to refrain from any further testing. The E.U. also urged India to sign the CTBT without any pre-conditions and any further delay.

The Russian Government too holds a similar position, despite Moscow's reservations on the issue of sanctions. Moscow has let it be known that it will find it difficult to honour some important commitments to India, especially those relating to the construction of nuclear power stations, if India fails to sign the CTBT immediately. President Boris Yeltsin's hands are anyway tied since Russia's fragile economy is now under International Monetary Fund-World Bank supervision.

Responding to the demand that India should sign the CTBT, an External Affairs Ministry spokesperson, while emphasising that India was open to negotiations, maintained that "any suggestion that India should conform to international regimes or face economic consequences is unacceptable."

New Delhi is claiming to have scored a diplomatic success of sorts for avoiding condemnation at the recent Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) Foreign Ministers' meeting in Cartagena. However, according to diplomatic sources, even leaders such as Nelson Mandela were extremely perturbed over the BJP Government's decision to conduct nuclear tests. As it is, the delegations of 10 countries, including Syria, were critical of India's testing. The Arabs in general are aware of India's growing closeness to Israel and are worried that the Vajpayee Government's adventurism could provide the impetus for Israel to go overtly nuclear. Besides, it is obvious to most NAM members that India, in its eagerness to gatecrash into the elite nuclear club, is willing to forget that the CTBT is a highly discriminatory treaty under which the nuclear weapon states have monopolised the right to own atomic weapons. The present government in New Delhi, however, considers NAM to be a relic of the past and views it as a hurdle on the road to the country's march to big-power status.

YANNIS BEHRAKIS / REUTERS
A Greenpeace activist stages a protest outside the Pakistani embassy in Athens on May 29.

IN the period before the present Government came to power in New Delhi, Sino-Indian and Indo-U.S. relations had improved significantly. This was making Islamabad nervous. However, today, because of the present Government's policies, both Beijing and Washington are firmly in Islamabad's corner, according to Maj. Gen. Dipankar Bannerjee of the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. "Now they have thrust them in each other's embrace," said Bannerjee. "Without doubt, it will enhance China-Pakistan military cooperation." Past experience has shown that China does not just talk, it acts decisively.

Since 1976, it has been China's policy to keep its borders with its neighbours tranquil and peaceful. The border issue with India was being discussed in a positive way, but now, with persons such as the Prime Minister and the Defence Minister painting China as a threat, the apprehension is that relations with China can become contentious and troubled. China, several Indian analysts fear, can now take steps to keep the Vajpayee Government slightly off balance. For the last few years, China has kept a very low profile in neighbouring countries like Nepal and Bangladesh. The Indian Ambassador to China, who was briefly recalled for consultations, is back at his post. The Sri Lankan Foreign Minister, Laxman Kadirgamar, was in Beijing in the last week of May on a diplomatic mission to bring about a rapprochement between New Delhi and Beijing.

The diplomatic fallout continues for India. Navy chief Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat's visit to the United Kingdom has been postponed. Meanwhile, India has withdrawn its Defence Attache from Australia, after that country temporarily cut off all defence links with India and described India's tests as "wilful disregard of international opinion that would have the most damaging consequences" to regional stability. Indian Army officers undergoing training in Canberra were sent back immediately after Australia received news of India's nuclear tests. The Japanese Ambassador to India has returned to his post, but the country continues to maintain a tough stance. The graduates of the National Defence Academy, who were scheduled to go on a goodwill visit to Japan and Indonesia, were denied visas. (The turmoil in Indonesia was responsible for the denial of Indonesian visas.)

Meanwhile, New Delhi has received support from an unexpected quarter: Iraq's Speaker, Saddoun Hammadi, was in New Delhi to convey informally his country's support for India's bomb.

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